Orioles: Dream seeding scenario, matchup for 2023 MLB playoffs

The final weekend of the regular season is an important one for the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have long secured a berth in the 2023 MLB Playoffs, but their final spot in the postseason picture has yet to be determined. The Orioles' dream seeding scenario is technically still possible, though Baltimore will need a ton of help in order to make it a reality.

Orioles' dream seeding scenario for 2023 MLB playoffs

The Orioles are still in contention for the ultimate goal of any playoff team: home-field advantage through the World Series. The odds are, admittedly, incredibly unlikely that Baltimore will enter the 2023 MLB Playoffs at the very top of the overall standings. But we are talking about dream seeding scenarios here, so Baltimore can have visions of finishing with the best record in baseball for at least one more day.

Only the Atlanta Braves and Orioles are in contention to clinch home-field advantage in every series before the start of the MLB playoffs. The Braves have a three-game lead on the Orioles with four games left to play. Because Atlanta owns the tiebreaker over Baltimore—the Braves took two out of three games from the Orioles during a series in early May—the NL East champs have a magic number of one to earn the top overall seed. That means Baltimore must win their final four games and Atlanta has to enter the postseason on a four-game losing streak in order for the ideal Orioles' seeding scenario to come to fruition.

The Orioles host the Boston Red Sox in a four-game series to end the season. It's certainly conceivable for Baltimore to sweep Boston. The Red Sox have nothing to play for, already guaranteed to finish at the bottom of the AL East. With 15 losses in its last 19 games, Boston looks like a team that's ready to get its offseason started.

Don't expect the Braves to collapse and relinquish MLB's best record. Atlanta is 102-56 with six wins in its last eight games. After hosting the Chicago Cubs Thursday night, the Braves end the season with three games at home against the Washington Nationals. Washington is even worse than Boston. With 90 losses in 2023 and a 7-17 record in September, the Nationals have little chance to sweep the Braves and assist their AL rivals.

Orioles' best realistic matchups, path to 2023 World Series

If Baltimore makes its way to the 2023 World Series, the team might very well end up hosting Game 1 and a possible Game 7. The Orioles are on track to have home-field advantage against any NL playoff team other than the Braves. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a game behind the Orioles in the overall standings. Baltimore has the best record in the American League and is on the verge of clinching the top seed in the AL playoff picture.

Only the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are in contention for the AL's No.1  seed. One team will win the AL East. The other will clinch the first wild-card berth. With a 2.5-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, Baltimore's magic number to secure home-field advantage up until the World Series is down to one. A single Orioles victory over the Red Sox would give Baltimore the AL East title. A single loss by the Rays would also get the job done. A three-game series on the road against the Toronto Blue Jays is all that remains on Tampa Bay's schedule.

Let's assume that the Braves clinch MLB's best record and the Orioles win the AL East. How should Baltimore be rooting for the rest of the playoff picture to shake out? If the latest standings hold, the Rays and Blue Jays will face off in the wild-card round. A Toronto upset that sets up an Orioles-Blue Jays ALDS would create an ideal first playoff matchup for Baltimore.

For starters, the Rays are 10 games ahead of the Blue Jays and the more formidable opponent. An argument can be made that the Orioles should be hoping for the Seattle Mariners to earn the second wild-card spot and find their way into an ALDS matchup with Baltimore. The Orioles' record against the Blue Jays, however, begs to differ. Baltimore has dominated Toronto in 2023, going 10-3 against the Blue Jays. The Orioles have taken all four of their series with Toronto. Baltimore matches up well with the AL East's third-place team. The Orioles would be heavy favorites to reach the ALCS if such a matchup materializes.

The Minnesota Twins would make for the Orioles' ideal ALCS opponent. The AL Central champions, the Twins are locked into the No. 3 seed. They can only meet the AL's top seed in the ALCS. Minnesota won the worst division in baseball and owns a worse record than every AL wild-card team.

If the Orioles have to go through the Blue Jays and Twins in the AL playoffs, there's a strong chance that Baltimore will make its first World Series appearance in 40 years.