Orioles-Guardians prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, September 21

After taking two of three in impressive fashion over the Astros in Houston, the Baltimore Orioles (95-57) look to continue their push toward an AL East crown as they roll into Cleveland for four games against the Guardians (72-81). It’ll be a battle of rookie righties on the mound, as Grayson Rodriguez (6-4, 4.53 ERA) goes for the O’s while Hunter Gaddis (2-1, 4.85) fills Tanner Bibee’s rotation spot for Cleveland. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Baltimore enters as -180 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Guardians at +150. The run total is set at 8.5.

Orioles-Guardians picks: Thursday, September 21

Injury report

Orioles

Out: RP Felix Bautista (partial right UCL tear), 1B Ryan Mountcastle (right shoulder soreness)

Guardians

Day to day: SP Triston McKenzie (elbow), SP Shane Bieber (elbow)
Out: SP Tanner Bibee (hip)

Starting pitchers

Grayson Rodriguez vs. Hunter Gaddis

Rodriguez has made good on all his prospect hype in his second go-around in the Majors, with a 2.59 ERA so far in the second half. He’s coming off of arguably his best start in the bigs, firing eight scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in a pressure-packed spot against the Rays last weekend. His fastball has improved by leaps and bounds since it got hammered earlier this season, and with a 2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 24% strikeout rate over his last 10 starts, it’s hard not to expect the young righty to keep things rolling right along.

Gaddis has a 4.85 ERA in sporadic MLB innings this year and an even worse 6.14 mark at Triple-A, only getting a crack in Cleveland’s the rotation this month due to the injury to Tanner Bibee. He last pitched in the Majors at the end of August, allowing 11 hits and three walked but just three runs over 7.2 innings across two starts.

Over/Under pick

Rodriguez’s recent dominance does make me skittish about a number this high, but I’m still taking the over — the O’s have averaged six runs over their last four games, and if they get to that number (or higher) again tonight, it won’t take much for us to clear this total. Baltimore should come out swinging against Gattis and the Cleveland bullpen, and the shakiness of the Orioles’ own relievers means that the Guardians could contribute to the scoring late.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

Grayson vs. Gaddis is a pretty monumental mismatch on the mound, and the O’s have everything to play for and all of the momentum heading into this series against a Guardians squad that’s just trying to get its young guys some reps over the final couple of weeks. Anything can happen, but don’t overthink this one.