Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Picks, Odds

Boston and Cleveland both come into this matchup looking to get their seasons back under control. The Guardians will send Shane Bieber to the mound, but our MLB betting picks aren't expecting anything special from the former Cy Young winner.

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The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians begin a three-game series at Progressive Field on Tuesday night. The BoSox are sending lefty James Paxton to the hill as they try to snap a three-game losing streak while the Guardians respond with struggling ace Shane Bieber. 

One of the many struggles Bieber has faced this season is his inability to get people whiffing, and Boston won't make it any easier tonight.

MLB odds pegged Cleveland as a -120 home favorite, with the Over/Under at 8.5 before ticking down to 7.5. Here are my best free Red Sox vs. Guardians MLB picks for June 6.

Red Sox vs Guardians odds

Red Sox vs Guardians predictions

The O/U on Shane Bieber's strikeouts total is set at 4.5 and juiced towards the Over at -135. Considering that he has gone below that number in nine of his last 10 starts, and the Boston Red Sox have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors, that seems a bit off.

Bieber's strikeouts total is likely a tad inflated due to his production over the last several years, but he has become a far different pitcher than the one that claimed the AL Cy Young Award in 2020. 

While his strikeout rate was at 41.1% in 2020, that number dropped to 25% last year and sits at just 16.9% this season. The velocity on his fastball has steadily declined, with his heater averaging 94.1 mph in 2020 before dropping to 91.3 mph last year and 91.2 mph this season.

He's also throwing that four seamer less often while seeing an even steeper decrease in the usage of his curveball. That's been offset by an uptick in his slider and cutter, which batters have been making better contact against. Bieber isn't the strikeout artist he used to be and the change in his arsenal should lead to another low-strikeout performance today.

My best bet: Shane Bieber Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)

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Red Sox vs Guardians moneyline analysis

The Red Sox have lost their last three games dropping their record to 30-30, but they head to Progressive Field where they have won seven of the last eight meetings.

The Cleveland Guardians are coming off back-to-back wins against Minnesota. While their record is just 27-32, they are only 3.5 games behind the Twins for first place in the AL Central. 

Bieber has been one of the best pitchers in the majors over the last few years and went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP last year. He looked to be on track for another sensational season this year — pitching to a 2.61 through his first eight starts — but he has a 6.17 ERA in his last four games.

James Paxton was sidelined for the last two years due to Tommy John surgery and re-entered Boston's rotation a month ago despite struggling at Triple A Worcester. He has been solid since coming back aside from getting torched in an outing against the Angels two weeks ago.

The Red Sox are fifth in the majors in OPS (.764) while the Guardians rank just 28th with an OPS of .650. That said, they have been slightly better against southpaws like Paxton (.676 OPS) and strike out at the second-lowest rate in the majors. 

Red Sox vs Guardians Over/Under analysis

The Red Sox are fourth in the majors with 5.10 runs per game but that number drops to just 4.33 runs/game away from Fenway. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 29th in scoring with 3.59 runs/game and plates just 2.78 runs/game at home. 

The wind coming off Lake Erie can be a bit unpredictable at Progressive Rate Field, and the current forecast has the wind blowing towards the infield at 13 mph. 

Another factor that points toward the Under is the strong play from both bullpens. Cleveland's relievers rank second in the majors in both ERA (3.06) and WHIP (1.16) while Boston's improved bullpen is 10th in ERA (3.83) and 11th in WHIP (1.27).

Red Sox vs Guardians game info

Starting pitchers

James Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA): The lefty went 38-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.16 WHIP between 2017 and 2019, but has pitched just 40 2/3 innings since. He ranks in the Bottom 10th percentile in barrel rate while his expected ERA sits at 4.64. He's fresh off a strong performance where he limited the Reds to five hits and one run while fanning eight batters.

Shane Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA): Bieber looked sharp at the start of the season, but the analytics have been expecting regression since he ranks in the Bottom 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, while posting an xERA of 4.89. He's coming off an ugly outing against the Orioles where he surrendered eight hits and seven runs in four innings of work. 

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Under is 20-4-2 in Cleveland's last 26 home games while going 8-2 in Boston's previous 10 contests at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Guardians