Orioles-Mariners prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 11

The Baltimore Orioles (71-44) and Seattle Mariners (62-52) will begin a three-game weekend series tonight. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Kyle Gibson (11-6, 4.50 ERA) will start for the O’s and will go up against M’s ace Luis Castillo (7-7, 3.21).

Baltimore dropped two out of three games against the Astros this week, but still boasts the top record in the American League. The team was able to avoid the sweep with a 5-4 victory over Houston last night. Meanwhile, Seattle is on fire, having won seven straight games heading into tonight’s series opener. The Mariners just swept the Padres in a short two-game series this week and continue to inch their way back into the AL West race.

Seattle enters the game as -142 favorites on the moneyline over at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the O’s are +120 underdogs. The run total is set at 7.5.

Orioles-Mariners picks: Friday, August 11

Injury report

Orioles

Out: OF Cedric Mullins (groin), SP John Means (elbow/back), RP Austin Voth (elbow), OF Aaron Hicks (hamstring), RP Dillon Tate (forearm), RP Danny Coulombe (biceps)

Mariners

Day-To-Day: SS JP Crawford (concussion)
Out: SP Marco Gonzales (elbow), SP Bryan Woo (forearm), RP Penn Murfee (elbow), OF Jarred Kelenic (foot)

Starting pitchers

Kyle Gibson vs. Luis Castillo

Gibson has picked up the win in back-to-back starts for the O’s and was great in his start against the Mets last Saturday. He put nine batters down on strikes through seven innings of action, yielding just three earned runs in the process. His road splits have been solid this season, posting a 6-3 record with a 3.95 ERA away from Camden Yards.

Castillo has been reliable for the M’s for the past month, but had a less than stellar outing against the Angels last Saturday. He was hit for seven earned runs off 10 hits and a walk through six innings of work. Fortunately for him, the Mariners’ bats were on that day and the team eventually came out victorious 9-7. Castillo has done his best work at home this season, posting a 5-3 record with a 2.79 ERA and an opponent batting average of .196.

Over/Under pick

Both pitching staffs have been excellent over the last 15 days, with the Mariners posting a league-best collective 2.67 ERA during that span and the Orioles’ staff not too far behind with a 3.34 ERA. However, a 7.5 total is low, even in a game featuring a Seattle offense that hasn’t been doing so hot as of late. Hammer the over for this one.

Pick: Over 7.5

Moneyline pick

It’s difficult to pick a winner for this one considering that it’s the top team in the American League vs. the hottest team in the American League. Baltimore is tied with Atlanta for the best road record in the Majors at 35-21 this season, and even though it’ll be playing what would be a late-night game on the East Coast, I’ll still lean with the O’s to grab the series opener tonight.