Orioles-Red Sox prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, September 8

Two AL East teams going in opposite directions collide in a crucial weekend series as the division-leading Baltimore Orioles (88-51) head up I-95 to take on the Boston Red Sox (72-68). First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. The O’s will send their best pitcher, Kyle Bradish (10-6, 3.03 ERA) to the mound, while Boston counters with righty Tanner Houck (4-8, 5.07).

Baltimore enters as -122 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox +102 underdogs. The run total is set at 10.

Orioles-Red Sox picks: Friday, September 8

Injury report

Orioles

Out: RP Felix Bautista (UCL), SP John Means (Tommy John rehab), RP Keegan Akin (back)

Red Sox

Day to day: OF Alex Verdugo (hamstring), SP James Paxton (fatigue)
Out: INF Pablo Reyes (elbow), SP/RP Corey Kluber (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Kyle Bradish vs. Tanner Houck

Bradish has rather quietly been among the better pitchers in the AL this year. He’s allowed more than three runs just twice since the start of May, with four quality starts in a row and 10 out of his last 12. The righty’s secret? Two wicked breaking balls, a slider (.176 BA against, 36.5% whiff rate) and curveball (.146, 34.2%) that the league has yet to get a handle on. His switch from a four-seam fastball to a sinker has helped his heater stay down and out of trouble, and right now there aren’t too many pitchers hotter in the entire league.

Houck remains a frustrating pitcher, with one elite offering (his slider is like something Chris Sale would dream up from the right side) but not enough else to support it. The result? A bloated ERA and an inability to work deep into games. The righty has gone more than five innings just once in his last six starts, giving up four runs on seven hits over five frames last time out against the Royals. If his splitter ever shows up, look out, but as it stands Houck has a hard time getting lefties out (.896 OPS allowed) and a hard time turning lineups over multiple times.

Over/Under pick

As much as I like Bradish here, it’s hard to take the under at a park that’s as hitter-friendly as Fenway. Five of the last six games in Boston have cleared this total, and even if Bradish does keep the Boston bats in check, I think Baltimore — who’s scored five or more in eight of their last nine — is in position to do some real damage here.

Pick: Under 10

Moneyline pick

Bradish is simply too good to deny here, especially against a pitcher in Houck who doesn’t match up well with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and the rest of Baltimore’s lefty bats. The O’s bring the more trustworthy starter and deeper lineup, which makes them an easy pick at almost even odds.