Rays-Orioles prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, September 14
The AL East will be on the line this weekend, as the Tampa Bay Rays (90-57) head north to kick off a crucial four-game set against the division-leading Baltimore Orioles (91-54) on Thursday night. First pitch from Camden Yards is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Tampa sends righty Aaron Civale (7-3, 2.96 ERA) to the mound, while the O’s counter with their under-the-radar ace, Kyle Bradish (11-6, 3.03).
The stakes could hardly be higher here: The Rays enter this series just two back — three in the loss column — of Baltimore in the AL East, and this is the last time these two teams will see each other this season. If the O’s can salvage even a split of these four games, they’ll be in great shape to capture their first division crown since 2014. If Tampa takes three or more, we’ll be in for one heck of a final two weeks.
Baltimore enters as -142 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rays at +120. The run total is set at 8.
Rays-Orioles picks: Thursday, September 14
Injury report
Rays
Day to day: OF Manuel Margot (elbow)
Out: OF Jose Siri (hand), RP Jason Adam (oblique)
Orioles
Day to day: 1B Ryan Mountcastle (shoulder), RP Felix Bautista (elbow)
Starting pitchers
Aaron Civale vs. Kyle Bradish
Civale has largely done the job for Tampa since being acquired ahead of the trade deadline. He hasn’t been quite as spectacular as he was in July (1.45 ERA over six starts), but he’s kept the Rays competitive — and most importantly of all, he’s been healthy, a god-send for a Tampa rotation beset by a truly ridiculous string of arm injuries. The righty isn’t going to light up any radar guns, but at his best, he uses terrific pitch separation with his cutter and curveball to force a ton of soft contact (74th-percentile hard-hit rate) and let Tampa’s elite infield defense make plays behind him. He gave up four runs on four hits over five innings against the Mariners last time out.
Bradish has quietly been among the very best pitchers in baseball in the second half, with a 2.63 ERA since the All-Star break The righty has given up more than three runs in a start just three times all year — and just once since late May — with seven or more Ks in five of his last seven outings. His slider and curveball are among the very best in baseball — he ranks at the very top of all starters in breaking ball run value, per Statcast — and he’s been nigh-unhittable at home, with a 2.26 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. In Bradish’s two prior starts against Tampa this year, he allowed just four runs with 13 Ks over 11 innings, including an eight-strikeout effort back in late June.
Over/Under pick
Baltimore’s offense has been cooking lately, with the second-best wRC+ in baseball since the start of September and eight games of five or more runs, but they were silenced by the Cardinals in each of the last two games — scoring a grand total of two runs against Adam Wainwright and Drew Rom. Civale hasn’t been throwing the ball super well of late, but in a pitcher-friendly park like Camden Yards, I think he’ll do enough to keep the O’s off the scoreboard for the most part. That should be enough to ensure the under here given how good Bradish has looked of late, especially against Tampa.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline pick
Not having Felix Bautista hurts in a game that should be pretty close and pretty low-scoring, but I have a bit more trust in Bradish in this spot — and Baltimore’s lineup is a shade deeper than Tampa’s is right now. With an amped-up home crowd behind them and their ace on the mound, I think the O’s get this series kicked off with a win.
