Orioles-Red Sox prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, September 9

The red-hot Baltimore Orioles (89-51) look to run their winning streak to seven games and drive another nail into the coffin of the Red Sox playoff hopes as they face Boston (72-69) in the second game of a crucial three-game series at Fenway Park this weekend. First pitch of game two is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Righty Jack Flaherty (8-8, 4.84 ERA) will look to get on track for the O’s, while the Sox give the ball to ace Chris Sale (6-3, 4.46).

Boston enters as -162 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Baltimore at +136. The run total is set at 9.5.

Orioles-Red Sox picks: Saturday, September 9

Injury report

Orioles

Out: RP Felix Bautista (UCL), SP John Means (Tommy John rehab), RP Keegan Akin (back)

Red Sox

Day to day: SP James Paxton (fatigue)
Out: INF Pablo Reyes (elbow), SP/RP Corey Kluber (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Jack Flaherty vs. Chris Sale

It’s safe to say Flaherty hasn’t exactly been what the Orioles hoped when Baltimore acquired him minutes before last month’s trade deadline. The former Cardinal was sensational in his O’s debut, but things have gone downhill since, with diminished velocity and 17 runs allowed across his next 18.1 innings. He was the victim of a bit of bad batted-ball luck last time out, but he still surrendered four runs on six hits in just 4.2 innings of work against the Diamondbacks. He did strike out seven, though, and his breaking stuff has looked good when he has his fastball command — better things could be on the horizon.

Sale, on the other hand, is coming off his best start since returning from a shoulder injury last month, as the All-Star lefty fired five scoreless innings with five Ks in a win over the Royals. His fastball was down around 92 for most of that outing, which is a bit of a concern, but otherwise he looked like vantage Sale — a relief after he pitched to a 5.30 ERA in four August starts and didn’t quite seem back to his pre-injury self.

Over/Under pick

The under is always frightening at Fenway Park, but I’m going for it anyway. I think Flaherty has been throwing the ball a bit better than the numbers would suggest, and this is a Red Sox lineup that’s been a bit up-and-down of late. With Sale rounding into form on the other side, I think we could be in for a relatively low-scoring affair despite Baltimore’s 11-run eruption last night — although it’s certainly possible that Boston gets us most of the way to this number by themselves if Flaherty’s command goes haywire.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

Sale is the starting pitcher most trending in the right direction here, but it’s still awfully hard to ignore the better team getting this much juice. Baltimore has been just that for months now, with a deeper, more consistent lineup and better bullpen, and if Flaherty can finally avoid the one or two big mistakes that have derailed him over the past couple of weeks, I think Baltimore gets another win.