Orioles-Diamondbacks prediction: Picks, odds on Sunday, September 3

After striking back with a win in game two on Saturday, the Baltimore Orioles (84-51) look to move one step closer to an AL East crown in the rubber match of their three-game set against the Wild Card hopeful Arizona Diamondbacks (70-66). First pitch from Chase Field is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Baltimore will send righty Jack Flaherty (8-8, 4.73 ERA) to the mound, while Arizona counters with ace Zac Gallen (14-6, 3.32).

The D-backs enter as -142 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the O’s at +120. The run total is set at 8.5.

Orioles-Diamondbacks picks: Sunday, September 3

Injury report

Orioles

Out: SP John Means (elbow/back), RP Felix Bautista (UCL), OF Aaron Hicks (hamstring), RP Dillon Tate (forearm)

Diamondbacks

Out: SP Tommy Henry (elbow), RP Mark Melancon (shoulder), RP Austin Adams (ankle), RP Drey Jameson (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Jack Flaherty vs. Zac Gallen

Flaherty got off to a great start with the O’s after being acquired by Baltimore just minutes before the trade deadline, but he’s come back to Earth of late, with seven runs allowed in a loss to the Padres before giving up three runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings against the Rockies earlier this week. He’s had real trouble with his command this year, and it’s cost him consistency; when he’s spotting his slider and curveball down and keeping his fastball out of the middle of the plate, he’s had success, but a 16th-percentile walk rate has been a real weakness.

Gallen’s ability to churn out six quality innings every fifth day has put him in the inner circle of NL Cy Young contenders, but the righty is coming off arguably his worst start of the year last time out, allowing six runs on nine hits (including four homers) and three walks over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Dodgers. Gallen needs both his fastball at the top of the zone and his curveball and changeup at the bottom to be effective, but he didn’t have the latter last week. Still, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last 11 starts, and he remains among the most reliable starters out there.

Over/Under pick

This Orioles offense has been top-five in the league against righties over the last two weeks, and if Gallen isn’t sharp for a second straight outing, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Co. could put up a crooked number in a hurry. I think Baltimore can get to the Cy Young contender here, and with Flaherty’s inconsistency, we should have a relatively high-scoring affair on Sunday — maybe along the lines of the 7-3 final from Saturday.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

It’s understandable that Arizona is favored with Gallen on the mound, but the O’s have the far superior lineup and a pitcher in Flaherty who’s shown the ability to be very good when he’s on his game. He wasn’t far off last time out against Colorado, and I’m more than happy to take plus odds on the better overall team.