Our Best Bets for March 15
Before college basketball takes over the hoops world, the NBA has served up a seven-game slate for our prop betting pleasure. For tonight's prop picks we're focusing on a pair of big men to hit the glass and a Celtics' guard to stay hot.
The NBA will take a back seat to the college kids this week, but before the madness consumes the betting markets, the Association entices action with seven games on the board Wednesday. That means plenty of NBA player props to pick from.
I pick through those individual markets and give my best NBA player prop picks for March 15.
NBA player props for March 15
Picks made on 3/15/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Bull on the boards
Chicago Bulls big man Nikola Vucevic will be busy on the boards tonight with the Bulls hosting the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings come into this non-conference clash as the top-scoring team in the NBA but butt heads with a Chicago squad among the better defensive clubs in the land. This total has reflected that defensive prowess, dipping from 239 to 236.5 this morning.
Vucevic has been rounding up the rebounds the past two outings, snatching 12 at Houston on Saturday and pulling down 15 against Denver last Wednesday. While his March numbers on the glass have the 6-foot-10 Montenegrin averaging just Under 11 rebounds over his last five games, he was very active in February with an average of 12.3 boards per outing and owns a season mark of 11.3 per game.
"I don't focus on how many double-doubles I have, but I do want to make sure I do my job rebounding,” Vucevic, who sits third in the NBA in double-doubles (41), told reporters. “With the pace of the game and the amount of shots in a game these days, I should be able to get 10 rebounds as a big man. I'm a very prideful player. I always want to try to do my part for the team. I'm very consistent with that."
He’ll have more than enough chances to play that part tonight. Vucevic’s rebounding prop sits at 10.5 (Over -120), which is where his last two rebounding totals closed (both finishing Over).
The Kings play an up-tempo pace, so there will be lots of shots coming for Vucevic to wrangle on the defensive glass (this total is as much as 10 points higher than the previous three games). Chicago limits opponents to just 46.3% shooting inside the United Center and Vucevic pulls down 11.6 rebounds in home games.
Nikola Vucevic prop: Over 10.5 rebounds (-120)
Rocket Man Jr.
The Houston Rockets catch a break with one of the best big men in the league taking a breather when the L.A. Lakers come to town. Los Angeles star Anthony Davis is resting his aching foot, leaving L.A. very small inside.
Davis’ absence, as well as missing backup center Mo Bamba, has the Lakers rolling out a frontcourt rotation that tops out at 6-foot-9 and will likely go very guard-heavy as they try to push the ball in transition.
Houston is the best rebounding team in the NBA in terms of rebound rate and anchoring that work on the glass tonight will be Jabari Smith Jr.
He’s been very active on the boards the past three games, pulling down totals of 11, 10, and 12, and will be leaned on even more if starting center Alperen Sengun misses another matchup with a groin injury.
Smith’s rebounding total for tonight is way too low considering the matchups and missing pieces for both sides. His prop O/U sits at 8.5 (Over +107) which won’t be too difficult to top considering the Lakers are playing their second night of back-to-back contests, and their offense will be disjointed and likely attempting a lot from outside with Davis sidelined.
Davis has been a monster on the glass for a Lakers team that is still playing out LeBron James, which means L.A. is without its top two rebounders in Houston. Forward Jarred Vanderbilt will be playing undersized tonight at 6-foot-8, leaving lots of wayward shots for the lanky 6-foot-11 Smith to snatch. FYI: his double-double prop is out there at +180 if you believe.
Jabari Smith Jr. prop: Over 8.5 Rebounds (+107)
Malcolm in the Middle
Inconsistency has haunted the Boston Celtics since the All-Star break and the team apparently hit rock bottom at Houston on Monday night. Boston lacked energy on both ends, getting stunned by one of the worst teams in the league as a 13-point road favorite.
Star Jayson Tatum isn’t consistent, point guard Marcus Smart is mired in a late-season funk, and the defense has gone from Top 4 to the middle of the pack since the break.
One bright spot is the play of sixth man Malcolm Brogdon, who has put up point totals of 20, 18, five, and 24 in his last four games.
Outside of an off-shooting night against Portland (2-for-13) on March 8, the veteran guard is 21-for-37 in the other three outings in this span, including a 5-for-11 night with 20 points against the Rockets. He’s passed by his point prop in three of his last four and seven of his last 10 contests.
Brogdon’s Over/Under for tonight’s trip to Minnesota is at 14.5 points (Over -113), the same bar that’s been set in three of his last four games.
The total for this non-conference clash is at 233.5, which promises plenty of points, and the Wolves play a quicker tempo, sitting No. 4 in pace rating, which means more possessions to go around. Minnesota is also banged up with some notable names questionable for tonight, including top defensive stopper Rudy Gobert.
I like Brogdon to be that consistent anchor for a Celtics squad trying to get right on the road.
Malcolm Brogdon prop: Over 14.5 Points (-113)
