our experts give their idea of the 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner
The Irish Champions Festival and Longchamp trials have now passed, so attention is turning to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on October 1. Here our experts provide their fancy for the big race . . .
By Richard Birch, tipster
Odds: 12-1
Feed The Flame shaped as though just in need of the run when second to Fantastic Moon in the Prix Niel at Longchamp on Sunday. He'll be spot-on for the big day, and looks to have been given a classic Arc preparation. Much softer ground would enhance his already strong claims significantly.
By Scott Burton, France correspondent
If you’re already on Feed The Flame, it’s far too soon to tear up your ticket; remember, Peintre Celebre and Bago were both beaten in the Niel and still won the Arc.
Christophe Soumillon was clearly attempting to educate this raw son of Kingman by putting him in among horses and, with the exception of the winner, nothing else travelled well enough to take him into the race.
He also had to change course to go around his own tiring pacemaker (who set a curious stop-start gallop) and, despite getting tired close home, Feed The Flame still ran each of the last three furlongs faster than Fantastic Moon.
Most importantly for his prospects, Auguste Rodin, Warm Heart and Fantastic Moon are unlikely to turn up for the Arc in anything other than Indian Summer conditions, while he can thrive on softer ground. The path to victory has narrowed but it hasn’t vanished.
By Sam Hendry, reporter
Odds: 11-2
He has taken his form to a new level this season, defeating Desert Crown on his reappearance in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes before winning the most competitive King George for many years last time.
That form reads exceptionally strongly and he should be favourite for the Arc over Ace Impact in my eyes. He has proven himself to be very versatile ground-wise and would be able to handle any conditions.
Hukum will need to bust a significant trend as no six-year-old has won the Arc, but last year's winner Alpinista was a trend-breaker herself when she became only the second five-year-old mare to win the race, and the first since 1937. He has a great record when running fresh so the two-month break from the King George is another positive.
By Matt Rennie, reporter
Odds: 33-1
This Andre Fabre-trained filly remains lightly raced for her age and she is a juicy enough each-way price to outrun her odds.
A winner of the Prix de l'Opera on the card last year, in which Group 1 winners Nashwa, Above The Curve and Msqe De Sevigne were in behind, she's been better than ever on her last two starts, cosily winning a Deauville Group 3 before landing the Prix Foy on Sunday.
While it didn't look the strongest running, it is the same route Waldgeist took to Arc glory for Fabre in 2019. Her Opera win came on very soft ground and any give in the going will be in her favour. She's a real dark horse for the race.
By Graeme Rodway, tipster
Odds: 10-1
Got stuck in the mud when sixth last year but better than ever this season, recording back-to-back career-best efforts on his last two outings.He was dominant when landing the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July and produced an even better effort when second to Hukum in the King George at Ascot last time, pulling four and a half lengths clear of the third.
Westover appears to be improving and it won't take much further progress for him to reverse the head margin with Hukum. Connections have warned he won't line up if conditions are the same as they were a year ago, but he should be fine if the ground is on the soft side of good and he has been given a nice break since Ascot, so should be spot-on for this.
By James Hill, tipster
Odds: 33-1
Ace Impact is the right favourite, but he’s yet to prove himself over a mile and a half, and I thought the most significant result of last weekend for the Arc was the Prix Niel, as German Derby victor Fantastic Moon highlighted the strength of his country’s form when running out a two-and-a-half-length winner over Feed The Flame.
Fantastic Moon beat Mr Hollywood when winning the German Derby back in July, but more interesting is the form of the Grosser Preis von Baden at the start of this month. Three winners of that Group 1 this century have gone on to Arc glory, and this year’s scorer, Zagrey, also beat Mr Hollywood only he was doing so giving away 7lb.
Zagrey has twice finished behind Westover this year, but proper soft ground at Longchamp could see that form reversed.
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