Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2023 Trends: Draw Stat You Can't Ignore

Sports Lens

29 September 2023

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2023 Trends: Draw Stat You Can't Ignore

See below our 2023 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trends to use for Europe’s richest horse race at Longchamp on Sunday (Oct 1st). You apply these Longchamp horse racing stats to the 15 runners and find the horses with the best profiles based on past winners. Does the hot favourite Ace Impact tick the Arc trends?

Best Horse Racing Offers for Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends: Stats To Find Longchamp Winner

It’s Europe’s richest horse race, with just over £2.5m on offer to the winner, but who is going to win the big pot in 2023?

The J-C Rouget-trained unbeaten Ace Impact has been propping up the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe betting with the best UK horse racing betting sites for some time – but does this exciting 3 year-old fit the stats? You can find out below.

On the UK and Irish front, it’s the Ascot King George winner Hukum that is one of the big fancies but this Owen Burrows 6 year-old will be looking to become the oldest Arc winner since 1932, when Motrico took the honours.

We’ll also see this season’s St Leger winner Continuous, who was supplemented at a cost of €120k, so connections will be trying to multiply this outlay 20-fold. He’ll be hoping to give Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien his third Arc winner after winning the French Group One in 2016 (Found) and 2007 (Dyland Thomas).

With that in mind, let’s see that the key Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trends are, that you can also use to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race.

When Is The 2023 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe?

��Time: 3:05pm
��Date: Sunday 1st Oct 2023
��Racecourse: Longchamp
��: Winner: £2,528,319
�� TV: SkySports Racing / ITV4

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends – The Last 21 Runnings

20/21 – Had won a Group 1 race before
19/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
16/21 – Had 4 or more runs that season
16/21 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
15/21 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
15/21 – Had won at least 5 times before
15/21 – Won last time out
14/21 – Had run at Longchamp before
12/21 – Had won at Longchamp previously
12/21 – Placed favourites
11/21 – Aged 3 years-old
10/21 – Won by a French-based yard
9/21 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
9/21 – Female winners
6/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Won by a UK-based yard
3/21 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 8)
3/21 – Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 8 times in all)
2/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
3 of the last 14 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 4 winners aged 5 or older
18 of the last 29 winners were aged 3 years-old
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 6 times

The Last Arc Winner Aged 6+ Was In 1932

Let’s start with the age. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is open to horses aged 3+, but with the last horse aged 6+ to win Europe’s richest flat race Motrico in 1932, then this is a huge trend to have on your side.

This would be a big negative for the King George winner Hukum, who is the oldest Arc runner this year at 6 years-old.

3 Year-Olds Have Won 11 Of The Last 21

The last five winners have been aged 4 or 5, but it’s worth noting the good record of the 3 year-olds over the last 21 years.

We’ve seen eleven 3 year-old winners over the last 21 – which works out at a 52% return. Don’t forget, the 3 year-olds also get a handy weight allowance too – 6lbs on the older male horses and 3lbs from the older fillies.

Ace Impact and Continuous are the two main 3 year-olds in the race in 2023.

Winning Form Over 1m4f Is Key

With the Arc run over a trip of 1m4f, then if might sound obvious – but having winning form over 1m4f is key. You’d also think that most of the runners have previously won over this trip – however, some are stepping up in trip.

The big horse to fall down here is the likely favourite – Ace Impact – who has only gone as far as 1m 2 1/2f to date.

16 Of The Last 21 Winners Draw 8 Or Lower

Next up is the draw.

With 15 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runners, then the draw comes into play here – even over this 1m4f trip.

This is backed up with 76% of the last 21 winners coming from stalls 8 or lower and it’s still a decent 71% with those drawn 6 or lower.

Last year’s winner Alpinista came from stall 6 and five of the last 6 winners also hailed from gates 6 or lower.

The horses drawn higher this year are Hukum (14), Fantastic Moon (12), Place Du Carrousel (11), Simca Mille (15), Mr Hollywood (10) and Sisfahan (13).

While Ace Impact is right on the cusp here – drawn in stall 8.

Look For Horses With At Least 5 Past Wins

Horses with at least 5 past wins to their name have fared well too – 15 of the last 21 ticked this box. This is fine for Ace Impact, with exactly five past victories, but it would be a slight negative for the St Leger winner Continuous, who has had only 4 successes in the past.

Westover and Through Seven Seas have also only had 4 past wins, while Feed The Flame has only three.

Experience Of Longchamp As Helped

‘Horses for Courses’ is a popular saying for punters and this certainly applies to the Arc with 14 of the last 21 winners having raced at the track in the past, with 12 of those winning.

Despite being trained in France, this is actually a negative for Ace Impact, who is yet to race here.

Westover was sixth in the race last year so that experience is a plus, while other big names to have not raced here are Hukum and Continuous.

A Last Time Out Win Is Respected

Next is to look for a recent win as 71% of the last 21 winners came here having won their most recent race.

Pluses for the first three in the betting – Ace Impact, Continuous and Hukum – but negatives for Westover, Through The Seas and Feed The Flame, who all took silver last time out.

Trainer John Gosden Has Won 3 Of The Last 8 Arcs

UK-based trainer John Gosden has mopped up the Arc three times since 2015 with two wins for the wonder-mare Enable and one for Golden Horn.

This year he pins his hopes on just one horse – Free Wind.

Frankie Dettori The Winning-Most Arc Jockey

Finally, no jockey has won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe more times than Frankie Dettori, with 6 successes. This will be the final ride in the race too for the popular Italian jockey after announcing his retirement at the end of this season.

Dettori’s first Arc win came back in 1995 with the Epsom Derby winner Lammtarra, with his most recent two wins in 2017 and 2018 on Enable.

This year Frankie will be trying to end on a high with the already-mentioned John Gosden sole runner – Free Wind.

Frankie Dettori’s Past Arc Wins