Outright Winner, Props for Royal Liverpool

With Rory McIlroy set as the consensus betting favorite for Royal Liverpool, our best British Open picks and predictions look for value across the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Royal Liverpool last hosted the British Open in 2014, with Rory McIlroy winning by a two-stroke margin over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia to take his third major. Now a four-time major winner, Rory is looking for his first major championship title since August 2014.

However, McIlroy enters the week of The Open in perfect form after winning the preceding Scottish Open for his 24th career PGA Tour triumph. That's helped separate him from world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and the rest of the British Open field on the oddsboard. Scheffler retained the top spot in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) with his T-3 finish during the Scottish Open; McIlroy moved ahead of an inactive Jon Rahm for No. 2.

British Open picks and predictions 2023

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Viktor Hovland to win the British Open (+2200)

Hovland, and those betting on him to win his first career major, are the beneficiaries of McIlroy's further suppressed British Open odds in the wake of his Scottish Open victory.

The Norwegian tied for 25th at The Renaissance Club, even with a final round of plus-2 amid an atrocious putting performance. He heads into the final major of the year with finishes of T-7 in the Masters, T-2 in the PGA Championship, and 19th in the U.S. Open this year. He also tied for fourth during last year's Open Championship at St Andrews for what was then his best career major finish.

Hovland heads to Royal Liverpool in excellent form across all meaningful categories for links golf. He's been his regularly excellent self with his irons and on approach to the green, and Hovland is averaging 0.55 true strokes gained: putting across his last 24 measured rounds. The 25-year-old is also tied for ninth during the PGA Tour season in par-4 scoring average and is 11th in birdie-or-better percentage.

Though he has yet to win a major, Hovland took the Memorial Tournament in June against an elite elevated field that included the likes of McIlroy, Scheffler, and Rahm. His two career European Tour wins also give him an edge over much of the American contingent competing at Royal Liverpool. PointsBet is offering the best odds in the market at +2200 after DraftKings dropped back toward the rest of the market Monday morning.

Hovland's odds have climbed to a near-consensus of +2200 as of Monday afternoon and may continue to rise with more money coming in on McIlroy and Scheffler at the top of the board. I'm comfortable making this bet down to +2000, and I'd get some insurance with the +400 odds for a top-five finish.

For further support for our pick of Hovland, he comes in at No. 4 in Neil Parker's British Open power rankings.  

FedEx Cup odds, as well as the 2024 Masters odds, PGA Championship odds, and U.S. Open odds.

Brian Harman to finish top 10 (+850 via FanDuel)

We were on Harman to finish in the top five of last week's Scottish Open. After sitting in the top three after 54 holes, he bogeyed four of his last 12 holes on Sunday to slip back to T-12. A +2000 ticket went up in smoke.

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We won't hold a grudge here and will instead double down with a little extra insurance by betting on Harman to finish in the top 10 of the British Open for the second straight year. He tied for sixth at St Andrews in 2022. He also tied for 26th at Royal Liverpool in 2014.

Harman was excellent with his putter last week and I'm not overly concerned by his below-average performance on approach to the greens. That's been a strength of his throughout his career and this season. Harman's also tied for ninth on the PGA Tour in par 4 scoring average this season.

Other books have Harman priced at +700 for a top-10 finish this week, so be sure to get the added value available via FanDuel.

Rory McIlroy to be the top GB & Ireland player (+200 via FanDuel)

With McIlroy having won the Claret Jug at Royal Liverpool before, it's been difficult to get value on him via the outright market for the past year. He opened at around +800 on Jan. 1 and is down as low as +525 now that we're into the week of the tournament.

So, we'll play it safe with this nationality prop. PointsBet offers a top UK and Ireland market with McIlroy listed as the +190 favorite in the 31-man pool. We're getting value from FanDuel in a market that removes the threat of Rahm and Hovland in the top European market.

Throughout the week, our British Open prop bets and British Open sleeper picks have you covered on your hunt for a bigger payday.

British Open odds

(odds as of July 17 at 5:20 p.m. ET)

The British Open odds will continue to fluctuate early in the week as the books work to adjust the posted futures odds, which had been posted for the better part of the past year. Now that we're into the week of the tournament, public betting action will hold an even greater influence on the odds, with McIlroy expected to draw the largest share of that handle as the consensus favorite.

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