2023 British Open odds, golf picks, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm predictions from same model that nailed the Masters
Royal Liverpool Golf Club is one of the top courses in England and will be the home of the 2023 Open Championship starting Thursday, July 20. Despite the course and sport's popularity in the region, no golfer from England has won The Open at Royal Liverpool Golf Club since 1936. The last five winners hailed from other countries since Alf Padgham won that year. Rory McIlroy, of Northern Ireland, won the 2014 Open Championship, the last time Royal Liverpool Golf Club hosted the event. Jon Rahm is the 15-2 favorite in the 2023 Open Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy have 9-1 odds among the 2023 British Open contenders, while Brooks Koepka is 14-1. Before locking in any 2023 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2023 Open Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model predicted Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, the model included Nick Taylor in its best bets to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. That bet hit at +7000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,900. McClure's best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn't won a PGA Tour event since 2018.
This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2023 Open Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard.
Top 2023 Open Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2023: Jordan Spieth (18-1), the 2017 British Open champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles at Royal Liverpool and doesn't even crack the top 10. Spieth has missed the cut in three of his last five tournaments, including at the U.S. Open in his most recent outing.
The three-time major champion has struggled in majors in recent years. He's missed the cut just as often as he's finished in the top 10 since 2020 with an average finish of 29th. Spieth hasn't won a tournament this season and has only two victories over 133 events since winning the 2017 Open Championship. He ranks 97th in total driving on the PGA Tour and 136th in driving accuracy. His statistics have dropped drastically since 2017, currently sporting worse strokes gained margins in all five categories (tee-to-green, off-the-tee, approach the green, around-the-green and putting). At 18-1 odds, the model doesn't see enough value in Spieth to justify utilizing him in 2023 Open Championship bets. See which golfers to fade here.
The model has also locked in its projection for Rory McIlroy (9-1), the No. 3-ranked player in the world and the 2014 Open champion. The four-time major winner should feel comfortable on the course after winning there in 2014, but McIlroy hasn't won a major title since.
He has performed well in the majority of recent majors, however, with top-10 finishes in six of his seven majors over the last two years while also missing the cut at the 2023 Masters. McIlroy has 17 finishes inside the top 10 over his last 31 majors while missing the cut six times over that span. The 34-year-old former No. 1 golfer looks to become just the 21st golfer to win five majors when he competes at the 2023 Open Championship. See where every golfer finishes here.
On the other hand, the model has examined Jon Rahm's (15-2) chances to win his second major championship of the season. Rahm won the Masters, the culmination of a stellar run in which he won four times across nine starts. His four victories this season are twice as many as anyone else, but it's been tough sledding for the Spaniard since his win at Augusta.
Outside of a runner-up at the Mexico Open, Rahm has just one other top-10 over the last three months. But his metrics indicate that when he's at his best, few can match his stellar play. Rahm ranks second in strokes gained total, with additional top three rankings in strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained approaching the green. Rahm has just one top-10 across five previous British Open starts, but you can't count out someone with his ball-striking skills and shot-making ability. See the full 2023 Open Championship projections from the model here.
How to make 2023 Open Championship picks
The model is also targeting five golfers with Open Championship odds 2023 of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's 2023 Open Championship picks here.
So, who will win the Open Championship 2023, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed nine golf majors, including this year's Masters.
2023 Open Championship odds, field
Jon Rahm +750
Scottie Scheffler +900
Rory McIlroy +900
Brooks Koepka +1400
Jordan Spieth +1800
Viktor Hovland +1800
Cameron Smith +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Xander Schauffele +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Justin Thomas +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Dustin Johnson +3000
Tony Finau +3500
Max Homa +3500
Shane Lowry +4000
Bryson DeChambeau +4000
Joohyung (Tom) Kim +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Rickie Fowler +4500
Sungjae Im +5000
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
Sahith Theegala +6000
Corey Conners +7000
Joaquin Niemann +7000
Paul Casey +7500
Billy Horschel +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Marc Leishman +8000
Ryan Fox +8000
Robert MacIntyre +8000
Russell Henley +8000
Patrick Reed +8500
Abraham Ancer +8500
Aaron Wise +9000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
Sergio Garcia +10000
Thomas Pieters +10000
Seamus Power +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Louis Oosthuizen +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Phil Mickelson +10000
Adrian Meronk +12500
Lucas Herbert +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Francesco Molinari +12500
Keith Mitchell +12500
Padraig Harrington +15000
Brian Harman +15000
KH Lee +15000
Harold Varner +15000
Mackenzie Hughes +15000
Sepp Straka +17500
JJ Spaun +20000
J.T. Poston +20000
Lee Westwood +20000
Danny Willett +20000
Cameron Tringale +20000
Luke List +25000
Stewart Cink +30000
Trey Mullinax +30000
Zach Johnson +30000
Darren Clarke +50000
Ernie Els +50000
