2023 British Open odds, golf picks, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm predictions from model that nailed the Masters

The 2023 Open Championship will begin on Thursday, July 20 from Royal Liverpool Golf Club. It marks the course's 13th time hosting the tournament, the second-most among English venues. Cameron Smith is the defending champion and among 15 former winners in the 2023 Open Championship field. Ernie Els (two) and Padraig Harrington (two) are the only golfers in the 2023 Open Championship lineup who have multiple Open victories.

Rory McIlroy was victorious the last time Royal Liverpool hosted The Open in 2014, and he's 9-1 at Caesars Sportsbook. That is tied with Scottie Scheffler for second-best in the 2023 Open Championship odds, trailing only Masters winner Jon Rahm at 15-2. PGA champion Brooks Koepka is 14-1, while U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark is a 35-1 long shot. Before locking in any 2023 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2023 Open Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model predicted Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, the model included Nick Taylor in its best bets to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. That bet hit at +7000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,900. McClure's best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn't won a PGA Tour event since 2018.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Open Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard.

Top 2023 Open Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2023: Jordan Spieth (18-1), the 2017 British Open champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles at Royal Liverpool and doesn't even crack the top 10. From 2014 to 2017, Spieth had a stretch in which he placed in the top 10 seven times across 15 major championship starts, including three wins. Since then, he's also had seven major top-10s, but those come over a stretch of 23 tournaments and includes no victories.

Spieth's previous start at Royal Liverpool saw him finish 36th, his second-worst finish at the British Open. Spieth has no tournament wins this season and his struggles off the tee have been a big reason why. He ranks outside the top 100 in both driving accuracy percentage (55.78%) and total driving efficiency (206). Spieth is still a household name, but his major performances and recent history indicate he's one to steer clear of with 2023 Open Championship bets. See which golfers to fade here.

The model has also locked in its projection for Rory McIlroy (9-1), the No. 3-ranked player in the world and the 2014 Open champion. The four-time major winner is in some of the best form of his career with five straight top-10s following the Travelers Championship. However, being competitive is not McIlroy's issue at majors. He has six top-10s over his last seven starts, but he's also gone 34 straight major tournaments without a victory.

The Irishman placed third at last year's British Open after finishing 46th or worse in his two previous Open Championship starts. His last victory at any tournament came in October and it's been a familiar refrain since then with seven top-10s but no victories. Having successful course history at Royal Liverpool could help McIlroy at this year's event, but how high he finishes on the leaderboard will be determined by putting together four good rounds, which has been his problem at recent majors. See where every golfer finishes here.

On the other hand, the model has examined Jon Rahm's (15-2) chances to win his second major championship of the season. Rahm won the Masters, the culmination of a stellar run in which he won four times across nine starts. His four victories this season are twice as many as anyone else, but it's been tough sledding for the Spaniard since his win at Augusta.

Outside of a runner-up at the Mexico Open, Rahm has just one other top-10 over the last three months. But his metrics indicate that when he's at his best, few can match his stellar play. Rahm ranks second in strokes gained total, with additional top three rankings in strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained approaching the green. Rahm has just one top-10 across five previous British Open starts, but you can't count out someone with his ball-striking skills and shot-making ability. See the full 2023 Open Championship projections from the model here.

How to make 2023 Open Championship picks

The model is also targeting five golfers with Open Championship odds 2023 of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's 2023 Open Championship picks here. 

So, who will win the Open Championship 2023, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed nine golf majors, including this year's Masters.

2023 Open Championship odds, field

Jon Rahm +750
Scottie Scheffler +900
Rory McIlroy +900
Brooks Koepka +1400
Jordan Spieth +1800
Viktor Hovland +1800
Cameron Smith +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Xander Schauffele +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Justin Thomas +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Dustin Johnson +3000
Tony Finau +3500
Max Homa +3500
Shane Lowry +4000
Bryson DeChambeau +4000
Joohyung (Tom) Kim +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Rickie Fowler +4500
Sungjae Im +5000
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
Sahith Theegala +6000
Corey Conners +7000
Joaquin Niemann +7000
Paul Casey +7500
Billy Horschel +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Marc Leishman +8000
Ryan Fox +8000
Robert MacIntyre +8000
Russell Henley +8000
Patrick Reed +8500
Abraham Ancer +8500
Aaron Wise +9000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
Sergio Garcia +10000
Thomas Pieters +10000
Seamus Power +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Louis Oosthuizen +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Phil Mickelson +10000
Adrian Meronk +12500
Lucas Herbert +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Francesco Molinari +12500
Keith Mitchell +12500
Padraig Harrington +15000
Brian Harman +15000
KH Lee +15000
Harold Varner +15000
Mackenzie Hughes +15000
Sepp Straka +17500
JJ Spaun +20000
J.T. Poston +20000
Lee Westwood +20000
Danny Willett +20000
Cameron Tringale +20000
Luke List +25000
Stewart Cink +30000
Trey Mullinax +30000
Zach Johnson +30000
Darren Clarke +50000
Ernie Els +50000