Pac-12 bowl picks: Desire trumps talent in college football's postseason
The most successful Pac-12 regular season in years hasn’t resonated with the postseason oddsmakers.
Combine several difficult matchups with significant quarterback attrition (hello, USC and Oregon State) and the conference is favored in just half of its eight bowls.
This, after it posted a 29-7 record in non-conference games from September through November.
But the underdog role creates the opportunity for upside surprises, especially in the matchups against marquee foes Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Texas.
To the picks:
Saturday
LA Bowl: UCLA vs. Boise State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. (ABC)
Line: UCLA -4 (total: 48.5)
Things only got worse for the Bruins after the season-ending loss to Cal with substantial player and staff departures. (Star edge rusher Laiatu Latu, for example, has opted out of the game.) As a result, we’re avoiding them at all costs in the LA Bowl. Meanwhile, Boise State finished with four consecutive wins and is rallying around Solana Beach native Spencer Danielson, who was recently promoted from interim to permanent coach. One team has loads of motivation; the other has none. Also, the Mountain West is 2-0 against the Pac-12 in the LA Bowl.
Pick: Boise State
Independence Bowl: Cal vs. Texas Tech
Kickoff: 6:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Cal +2.5 (total: 57.5)
Like UCLA, the Golden Bears have been whacked by staff and player defections. Unlike UCLA, they finished the season with momentum and have coalesced around quarterback Fernando Mendoza. (Bowl games are as much about desire as talent.) Cal’s opponent was 6-6 in a lesser conference, the Big 12, and battered 57-7 in its regular-season finale. This feels like the end of 2019 all over again for the Bears, and that’s a good thing for coach Justin Wilcox.
Pick: Cal
Dec. 23
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Northwestern
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. (ABC)
Line: Utah -6.5 (total: 41.5)
The Utes, who once thrived in the postseason, have lost their past four bowl games. That skid started in the 2018 Holiday Bowl with an 11-point loss to their opponent this year. How many of the injured Utes will be back? We cannot state with any level of certainty. But this much is clear: Northwestern played well under interim coach David Braun, who was promoted to the permanent position and subsequently named Big Ten Coach of the Year.
Pick: Northwestern
Dec. 27
Holiday Bowl: USC vs. Louisville
Kickoff: 5 p.m. (Fox)
Line: USC +7.5 (total: 57.5)
: The point spread is easily explained: USC will be without quarterback Caleb Williams, who opted out, and lacks an effective defense. That said, Louisville hardly presents matchup problems for the Trojans and is coming off a loss in the ACC title game to Florida State. Of note: Cardinals quarterback Jack Plummer played well against USC last season during his tenure as Cal’s starter. Nonetheless, we like the Trojans and all those points.
Pick: USC
Dec. 28
Alamo Bowl: Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Kickoff: 6:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Arizona -3 (total: 62.5)
Another case of quarterback issues driving the betting line as Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel has announced his transfer to Oregon, leaving the Sooners to start talented but inexperienced rookie Jackson Arnold. The Wildcats should have most, if not all of their key players after a sizzling performance down the stretch. This is one of the toughest matchups to predict. But when in doubt, go with the trend: Arizona was 10-2 against the spread during the regular season, the best mark in the country.
Pick: Arizona
Dec. 29
Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Notre Dame
Kickoff: 11 a.m. (CBS)
Line: Oregon State +6.5 (total: 43.5)
The Irish won’t have quarterback Sam Hartman, who opted out, and cannot be excited about a trip to El Paso. (The standard for success in South Bend is always the CFP.) Meanwhile, the Beavers have lost their head coach and top two quarterbacks since the end of the regular season. They should be highly motivated against a blue-blood opponent, but will OSU’s personnel hold up across four quarters? And how will new coach Trent Bray manage the preparation? We’re skeptical.
Pick: Notre Dame
Jan. 1
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Liberty
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (ESPN)
Line: Oregon -18.5 (total: 65.5)
In the span of 48 hours, the Ducks went from playoff hopeful to playing Liberty — a massive letdown by any standard. (Don’t blame the Fiesta Bowl; the CFP selection committee set the matchup.) Will Oregon have any urgency against the undefeated Flames, who played the weakest schedule in the country? Our hunch: Coach Dan Lanning works his motivational magic. Certainly, the presence of quarterback Bo Nix gives the Ducks a chance to end an ignominious streak: The loser of the Pac-12 championship has never won its bowl game.
Pick: Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Washington vs. Texas
Kickoff: 5:45 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Washington +4 (total: 64.5)
The Longhorns pose matchup problems for UW along the lines of scrimmage — problems the Huskies have faced only twice this season: in the duels with Oregon. Both of those games were decided on the knife’s edge, and we expect another riveting finish. Texas will have massive crowd support, but UW is well equipped to navigate raucous environments. How will UT sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers respond to the pressure? Can UW’s Michael Penix Jr. make all the big plays yet again? We like the Huskies to win but love the Huskies to cover.
Pick: Washington
Straight-up winners: Boise State, Cal, Northwestern, USC, Arizona, Notre Dame, Oregon and Washington
Five-star special: Liberty isn’t nearly as good as previous Group of Five participants in the major bowls.
