Pac-12 Championship Odds 2023: USC Favored to Win Top-Heavy League

sportsbookreview.com

19 July 2023

The USC Trojans are carrying the weight of huge expectations entering Year 2 of the Lincoln Riley era. Will they deliver with Caleb Williams leading the way? Read on as we track the 2023 Pac-12 conference title market based on our best college football odds.

Utah has won back-to-back Pac-12 titles, but the market doesn't believe the Utes are producing a three-peat. The USC Trojans are the betting favorites with their high-flying offense capable of putting on a show every weekend.

But there are several other strong contenders in the Pac-12, and USC hasn't won a league crown since 2017. Does that mean we should be looking elsewhere in this futures market ahead of the 2023-24 college football season?

Here is our look at the 2023 Pac-12 championship market (odds via our best sports betting apps).

Pac-12 championship odds 2023

(odds accurate as of July 18)

Pac 12 championship betting analysis

Perhaps more than any other conference, the Pac-12 is extremely top-heavy in 2023. That means there are a group of worthy contenders and a handful of long shots, with no true middle class in the league.

It's therefore critical to shop around the best sports betting sites to find value when placing a bet in this market.

DraftKings offers the best deal on a Utah team coming off two straight league titles, while Caesars provides the top value on Oregon. Head to BetMGM to take advantage of the price on Washington, but choose FanDuel or PointsBet when placing a bet on UCLA.

Pac-12 championship odds movement

This conference race features four contenders at the top, so we haven't seen as much movement across the board. UCLA and Oregon State have been established as the biggest challengers outside the top group, but the 2023 Pac-12 champion will likely come from the quartet of USC, Oregon, Washington, or Utah.

Pac 12 championship odds: Favorite

USC (+200 via FanDuel, BetMGM)

Year 1 of the Lincoln Riley era went better than expected, all things considered.

The Trojans finished 11-3, including 8-1 in league play. They boasted the third-best offense in the country with an average of 41.4 points per game, and quarterback Caleb Williams won the Heisman trophy. The sky is the limit for this year's USC squad with Wiliams back under center.

Whether USC reaches its ceiling of a Pac-12 title and College Football Playoff berth likely comes down to if the defense improves. The Trojans gave up 29.2 points per contest, but Alex Grinch's unit brings back nine starters and could take a step in the right direction this fall.

If you believe in a jump, the best value for USC's upside is on its odds to reach the College Football Playoff. The Trojans are +260 to reach the CFP via DraftKings, and they'd likely need to win the Pac-12 title to get there.

Pac 12 championship odds: Contender

Oregon (+330 via Caesars)

Picking the team to face USC in the Pac-12 championship game could lead to correctly handicapping this top-heavy conference. Oregon is getting a +120 price to reach the title game at DraftKings, while Washington is +130 and Utah is +280 in the same market.

Oregon has won double-digit games in each of the last two years, including Dan Lanning's first season at the helm this past fall. Quarterback Bo Nix is back for another collegiate campaign after throwing for 3,593 yards and 29 touchdowns during his first season with Oregon.

The best sportsbooks have made it difficult to find a betting angle for the Ducks, as their win total and conference wins are right in line with my power ratings. If you believe in their upside, that +120 ticket on Oregon to at least make it to the title game could be appealing.

As a safer option (and a faster payout), I'm willing to lay the points with Oregon in its nonconference road battle with Texas Tech on Sept. 8. The Ducks are -3.5 via Caesars in that game, which is a few points off my projection. I've already explained why I'm fading the Red Raiders in our Big 12 season preview, so this is a good way to capitalize on my opinion of both teams with this Week 2 matchup.

Pac 12 championship odds: Long shot

UCLA (+1500 via FanDuel, PointsBet)

Because this conference features so many contenders at the top, UCLA is likely the biggest long shot with a realistic chance of winning the league. The 2023 Bruins offer a wide range of outcomes, which includes making it to Las Vegas for the Pac-12 title game.

But Chip Kelly's squad features some new faces at key positions. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is gone after spending five seasons under center. The Bruins will eventually hand the keys of the offense to five-star freshman Dante Moore, but how long will he need to wait? Carson Steele transferred from Ball State to replace Zach Charbonnet's production at running back, too.

UCLA won't need to play Oregon or Washington in 2023, but the Bruins are slated to face Utah, Oregon State, and USC on the road. With those three games likely losses, I'll take my chances on the Bruins suffering one more misstep in league play and wager on Under 5.5 conference wins (+120) at DraftKings.

Pac 12 championship odds: Fade

Colorado (+15000 via FanDuel)

This is cheating because normally we try to fade an overpriced team. But the market does seem to like Colorado more than expected, as the school is the biggest liability at BetMGM in 2023. The Buffaloes are receiving 8.1% of bets (sixth-most) to win the national championship.

The sudden interest in Colorado football is obvious, with Deion Sanders taking over as head coach of the program this offseason. Sanders spent three years at the helm for Jackson State, leading the Tigers to a 27-6 overall record.

Sanders put together an active offseason while bringing in talent through the transfer portal for a team that went 1-11 in 2023. And maybe it all clicks right away, leading to an impressive turnaround. But I'm skeptical this team features the depth to withstand any setbacks.

As a result, I'm willing to take Under 3.5 wins (-115) at BetMGM for a school I currently project to finish below three victories. This same Under is listed with -168 vig at FanDuel, illustrating why we continue to shop around our best live betting sites for every wager.