Paddy Power Gold Cup tips and predictions: Unexpected Party our pick

Cheltenham’s November Meeting is the biggest in the calendar for the home of jumps racing outside the Festival itself in March – and day two is headlined by the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

The handicap chase this afternoon, run over two-and-a-half miles, is one of a trio of major winter prizes over this track and trip at the Cotswolds venue.

It has attracted a 14-strong field, including two winners from the Festival back in March atop the card in The Real Whacker and Stage Star.

Our expert has a couple of selections to follow in today’s big race at Cheltenham, including a headline tip for Dan and Harry Skelton – a combo that have gone close in recent renewals of this contest. 

Paddy Power Gold Cup, Cheltenham, Saturday November 18, 2.20pm 

• Easy As That @ 9/1

Paddy Power Gold Cup tips

• Selection: Unexpected Party @ 13/2 with Paddy Power
• Next Best: Easy As That @ 12/1 with Paddy Power

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Whacker could be Real deal 

Top weight here is set to be carried by The Real Whacker, winner of the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase over three miles in March for trainer Patrick Neville. 

That brought his record to 3-3 over fences and he held off no less than Gerri Colombe in doing so, with that Gordon Elliott inmate now second favourite for the Gold Cup itself back here in the spring.

The Real Whacker has plenty of staying power but also triumphed over this distance here on New Year’s Day. The future looks very bright for The Real Whacker but he is conceding upwards of 8lb to this field on his seasonal bow – and that could be asking plenty of him, enough to ensure he is bypassed for now.

Stage Star is also a Festival winner here, landing the Turners Novices’ Chase for champion trainer Paul Nicholls over 2m 4f (soft) with today’s rival Notlongtillmay behind in second. Though the Ditcheat runner was beaten afterwards at Aintree in another Grade 1 novice, he is interesting on his return and is 2-2 off similar breaks in the past. 

Skeltons could crash the Party 

Dan and Harry Skelton team up with UNEXPECTED PARTY and they must be respected in a race they have come close in recently with the likes of Midnight Prayer (third, 2022), Protektorat (second, 2021) and Spiritofthegames (second, 2020).

They have always thought plenty of Unexpected Party and while he went 0-6 last season over fences, he ran well in most of those instances, including behind Stage Star here (third) in January and when fifth in March. 

In last month’s comeback at Chepstow in a Listed novices’ contest, he defeated another Ditcheat inmate in Knappers Hill, with that rival franking the form last weekend in his impressive Wincanton success. 

Unexpected Party is 7lb better off than Stage Star compared with their January meeting here. His return victory suggests he is exactly the type of second-season chaser that could be improving enough to go and win a contest of this ilk, and he has shown already he can handle Cheltenham.

The excellent record of his trainer-jockey team in this contest further adds to his allure and his race fitness gives him an edge too. 

Selection: Unexpected Party @ 13/2 with Paddy Power

Easy does it for Williams 

The Venetia Williams string are in superb fettle right now, with a strike rate in excess of 45 per cent (10-22) leading into the start of the November Meeting here yesterday.

Rider Charlie Deutsch has been on plenty of those and will be partnering EASY AS THAT in the Cheltenham feature this afternoon.

After missing 639 days, he was beaten in a match race on his chasing bow at Ffos Las (2m, soft) last November before impressive firsts at Haydock (2m 5½f, soft) in December and Newcastle (2m 4f, good to soft) in February as he showcased his ability in this discipline.

He was favourite for a Novices’ Handicap Chase at Sandown in March on his final outing but a poor jump midway through appeared to rattle him and he compounded the error with further mistakes as he finished last of five. 

The eight-year-old gelding is rated 1lb lower and has had plenty of time to get over that experience, while his jumping is sure to have had lots of fine-tuning. He has scope for better and carries a nice racing weight of 10st 7lb here. With the yard in scintillating form, he looks a good bet to go well.

Selection: Easy As That @ 12/1 with Paddy Power

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