Cheltenham November Meeting: Five Horses To Watch As Racing Returns To Prestbury Park
For fans of the Jumps, this is a glorious time of year. The wait for high quality National Hunt action is over and with the Showcase Meeting only a few weeks gone, racing is back at Cheltenham this weekend for the three day November meeting. The highlight is the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, but there are plenty of supporting races worth paying close attention to across the meeting and Billy Grimshaw has picked out five he hopes turns up to potentially light up Prestbury Park...
Who knows what might have been were the Cheltenham Festival of 2023 to have been run on good ground rather than soft. Countless results would've been different, that's for sure, and one horse in Banbridge would've taken his chance in the Arkle for Joseph O'Brien. The Irish raider won this race en route to taking high ranking in the two mile novice chase division last season, and while the suspicion is that the front two in the big race on Tuesday were special, Banbridge would've been no forlorn hope.
Back in 2019, Put The Kettle On won this race at 6/1 before springing a surprise in the Arkle of the year before taking the 2021 Champion Chase, so this is clearly a trial that carries some weight. At the time of writing, Unexpected Party for the Skelton team heads the market but the vibes seem to indicate he will head for the Paddy Power, meaning this race would look even more wide open.
I was seriously taken by JPR ONE's jumping on chase debut for Joe Tizzard at Newton Abbot a few weeks back and for a team who took this race with Eldorado Allen in 2020, he warrants plenty of respect. At the time of writing there are quotes of 11/2 flying around, which look too big, and he will be carrying my cash as well as being one I watch closely in terms of future targets. Even if he finds one or two too good here, he could still make up into a fine Grand Annual prospect (he is 20/1 antepost), but hopefully he gets the job done and Arkle quotes of 33/1 for the Arkle will be a thing of the past.
Captain Teague is sure to be popular coming into this Grade Two feature race on Friday's card, and indeed the Ditcheat inmate is in my ten to follow list for the season. I am hopeful still that, despite his handler's seeming reluctance, the horse shows himself to be a real grinder and connections opt for the Albert Bartlett over the Ballymore at the Festival in the hope of emulating Stay Away Fay. This is merely pocket talk, however, and for the purpose of this piece I will be shunning the favourite in favour of a horse chalked up at 7/1 right now who, if confirmed as a runner, would be a stand-out each-way bet.
KINBARA was out of his depth in the valuable Aintree bumper that wrapped up Grand National day, finishing eleventh after being outpaced. This race looks exceptional on very early evidence, with Bowenspark in fifth winning on hurdles debut to go with the seventh Masaccio winning takingly on his first go over obstacles. Florida Dreams, the winner at Aintree, was beaten by a suspected mightily good one in Primoz at Ayr in his first start over timber, which may prove in time no disgrace.
On pedigree and all visual evidence, Kinbara was always a stayer in the making and although I am confident he will do his best work as a chaser for John McDonnell, he has made quite the impression on both hurdling starts thus far. His facile 18 length win in a weak Wexford maiden in July will not prove a strong race, but the ease of victory was pleasing to see. He then hacked up again, weirdly by the exact same margin, when 1/4 at Cartmel in another weak looking novices' race. I was once again impressed with his jumping and the manner in which he went through the gearswhen asked the question by rider Ben Harvey was exciting.
Perhaps he will not be in Captain Teague's class, and of course with articles like this perhaps he won't even take up the entry, but if Kinbara does run here in the Grade Two, I will have a close eye on him and perhaps some each way cash if the price holds. Novice hurdlers that start out in July at Wexford are not usually graded class truth be told, but trusting the visual impression and the ease in which he has won his two hurdle races means he could well be an exception. The ideal scenario is Captain Teague labours as he needs further, while Kinbara evidences those gears and snatches the race, earning quotes for both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett as he does so.
Perhaps it is folly to say the horse to 'watch' in this race is the horse that was trounced by another potential runner in Good Risk At All at Carlisle last time out, but ALAPHILIPPE is a fascinating potential runner in here come Saturday lunchtime. Upon second watching of that Carlisle race, there is no denying the winner (and the faller Giovinco) simply have too much speed for Alaphilippe, who plugs in for second a good way back from the winner. Nevertheless, this was his first run since the 2022 Pertemps, in which he was agonisingly denied when a banker for many by outsider Third Wind.
In that race he managed to injure himself and while trainer Fergal O'Brien has explained on twitter he could've got him back at a push last season, the wise thing to do was to sit out the campaign and he did just that. The cobwebs will have been suitably blown off at Carlisle for this nine year old who now embarks on his novice chase season a year later than planned, and after being given such a tender ride by Liam Harrison in the North East last time out I'd expect him to come on a bundle for it.
Good Risk At All will likely head the market should he take up his entry here, and rightfully so, however this race is over an extra four furlongs and is a stiffer test than Carlisle, so perhaps Alaphilippe can get closer. If the pricing of the pair is too wide then O'Brien's local boy will be burdened with my few pennies, but overall this looks a race that should give clues aplenty for the upcoming season. Mister Coffey is somehow still a novice after finishing placed in last season's Grand National and could be another to watch with a return to Aintree surely his overall aim for the campaign.
Don't let anyone at Ditcheat hear you saying it, but if you are of the opinion that the 2023 Turners Novices' Chase was a substandard renewal; you're not alone. Stage Star is a wonderfully straight forward horse and undoubtedly will scoop many more prizes throughout his career for his expert handler, but he does not look the sort of intermediate winner from Cheltenham Festivals gone by that immediately will take high ranking in the season after's Gold Cup market.
I'm of the opinion that we did not see Mighty Potter within a stone of his best that day and therefore the race somewhat fell apart, hence the closeness of outsider Notlongtillmay when the winner crossed the line. Both horses now face a stiff task in here off what is, in my opinion, an inflated rating and are to be opposed. The Arkle of 2023 was much more satisfactory and probably the strongest of the three, but the Brown Advisory was in my eyes a much better race and the winner THE REAL WHACKER could take the beating here.
Stage Star is chalked up as favourite, while Notlongtillmay can be backed at 10/1, but surely at 8/1 The Real Whacker is the bet. His battling front running performance, in which he saw off definite Gold Cup contender Gerri Colombe (much to the chagrin of this scribe), is the best form in this race. Although he was arguably a fortuitous winner and will face a stiff task carrying top weight here, he can bound to glory once more at this iconic venue. Even a horse beating Gerri Colombe with a slice of luck will prove to be a mighty animal in time, one suspects.
Prominent runners have an outstanding record in handicap chases at Cheltenham and with The Real Whacker almost certainly a graded horse in a handicap, he has the requisite class to lead them all a merry dance before scooping another big pot for Patrick Neville en route to an ambitious but fully justified tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup later this year, a race for which he is priced up as a 20/1 outsider.
Sunday's card at this meeting is never a backburner as the final day of the week so often is, with both the Shloer Chase and this race providing plenty for punters and purists to enjoy. In the Shloer, slightly earlier than the Greatwood, we could see a real three way battle between Jonbon, Edwardstone and Nube Negra, which would be a gripping race. Jonbon to my eye hasn't a prayer of reversing form with El Fabiolo, and so a one paced defeat here to a speedier rival to nudge him toward the Ryanair would be the preferred outcome. Moving on though to my final horse to watch, there's one in the Greatwood that immediately catches the eye.
Blueking D'Oroux would be of interest if lining up, but the worry is Paul Nicholls is on the record stating his target lies at Ascot in December and not here. Favourite Nemean Lion would come in with an obvious chance after being carefully minded by Kerry Lee, and hunting a hat trick has to be respected, but to me PUNCTUATION stands out like a sore thumb in here at 16/1. Fergal O'Brien confirmed prior to the season beginning that this race would be the target providing he came through his flat test at York, a race in which he duly obliged with Hollie Doyle in the saddle.
He was running a fine race in the Imperial Cup last March, albeit not going to trouble the winners, until taking a bump at an obstacle and swiftly being pulled up by Paddy Brennan once seeing his chance was gone. This proved an inspired move as he could be sent to Aintree none the worse, a race in which Liam Harrison gave him a perfect stalking ride to win at 40/1 in a race that fell apart slightly due to a pace burn up. Nevertheless, this is clearly a very smart horse and his odds at the time of writing, considering his Cheltenham record, this race's propensity to be fast run, and his proven soft ground form, makes no sense whatsoever.
This is probably the horse I fancy most at the entire meeting and although hopefully getting a few extra places on the day, I can't resist snaffling some of the antepost prices as they look double the number I'd be offering as a bookmaker.
