Five key runners for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Stage Star and The Real Whacker were among the headline Grade One winners at the Cheltenham Festival in March and their presence in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Prestbury Park on Saturday adds great lustre to the £160,000 contest.

However, both will be making their seasonal reappearances and head the weights, as well as betting. Stage Star is the ante-post favourite but no market leader has obliged since Tranquil Sea delivered in 2009.

Here are five to consider at bigger odds.

ANGELS BREATH

Trainer: Sam Thomas. Best odds: 12/1

I put up the Sam Thomas-trained grey as an ante-post selection at 25/1 last week. He’s shrunk to 12/1 but there’s still scope for his odds to keep tumbling.

Thomas also had Stolen Silver in the race until Monday’s confirmation stage but that horse, partly in the same ownership, is heading elsewhere even though there a chance he may have got the testing ground that he enjoys. Rightly or wrongly, I view that as something of an endorsement for Angels Breath because Stolen Silver impressed when winning on his return at Chepstow and, remember, went off favourite for last year’s renewal, where he fell four out when still in contention.

Angels Breath has been notoriously tricky to train but could be chucked in off a rating of 144 given all his early promise. For instance, he hammered First Flow on level weights on his second start over fences and that horse climbed to 166 (and is still rated 158).

It’s also worth remembering he was heavily backed to win the Grade Two Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton earlier this year despite being up against rivals rated up to 160. The money stayed in the bookies’ satchels that day because he was far too keen on what was his first race for more than three years.

Perhaps eager to avoid a repeat of that – and maybe preserve his chase mark - Thomas gave Angels Breath a comeback spin over hurdles at Cheltenham last month. Given all his issues, it was reassuring to see him run all the way to the line and finish a fine second.

If that run has added an edge, which would be something of a given if it were not for Angels Breath’s background, then he could yet make up for a lot of lost time. He is still only a nine-year-old and, like ten of the past 16 winners, is rated between 143 and 148.

UNEXPECTED PARTY

Trainer: Dan Skelton. Odds: 7/1

Another grey in that golden 143 and 148 handicap band is the 146-rated Unexpected Party.

The handicapper must be fearing he’s dropped something of a clanger because he raised him only 4lb for his decisive defeat of Knappers Hill in a novices’ chase over an extended 2m 3f at Chepstow last month. The runner-up went into that contest with a mark of 153 and did his bit for the form when a fluent winner of a Grade Two contest at Wincanton last Saturday.

The bottom line is that if Knappers Hill had been in Saturday’s race, he would have been 7lb worse off with a horse who had comprehensively beaten him a month or so before. Go figure.

Unexpected Party’s Festival target last season ended up being the Grand Annual but he didn’t make the cut. It was a story of what might have been because he instead lined up in the Grade One Turners and was beaten only eight lengths into fifth after seemingly being ridden to try and pick up some pieces.

He gets a 9lb pull with the winner, Stage Star, and I’m sure he will be ridden in contrasting fashion, especially after that taking comeback success. By contrast, Stage Star, who is a best-priced 4/1, lacks a recent run. The past seven Paddy Power winners have all had the benefit of a run or two earlier in the season.

Unexpected Party is also entered in the 2m novices’ chase at Cheltenham on Friday but Dan Skelton confirmed in a media Zoom call on Tuesday morning that the Paddy Power is the plan.

FUGITIF

Trainer: Richard Hobson. Odds: 8/1

There surely won’t be many taller horses in the line-up – he’s the best parts of 18 hands – and he ran three crackers in competitive handicaps at Cheltenham last season when runner-up on each occasion.

The assessor will feel he’s always been a marginal step ahead but Fugitif is doing his best to get free of his shackles and should not be underestimated.

He chased home Amarillo Sky over 2m on his return at the November Meeting last year and then ran Il Ridoto to a length over 2m 4f on Trials Day, having won at Chepstow in between. A 6lb rise didn’t stop him beating all bar Seddon in the Magners Plate at the Festival, when he typically travelled with great zest after a standing start seemed to catch him unawares.

Fugitif signed off with a dull effort in Grade One company at Aintree but that was almost certainly one race too many for the season. With his batteries refreshed, he should again make his presence felt.

HARPER’S BROOK

Trainer: Ben Pauling. Odds: 16/1

Not an obvious one for this shortlist given that he’s fallen, finished last and been pulled up in his three previous races at Cheltenham. However, the track has not looked the issue and I’m sure he has a good prize in him off his present rating.

He was quite a sight for about 85 per cent of the Ultima in March – jumping boldly from the front and pulling plenty out of their comfort zones. However, the 3m trip was always going to be a question mark and he simply burnt himself out.

Harper’s Brook ended up having a tough race that day but was again full of himself at Sandown the following montyh, having the 2m 4f novices’ handicap chase in the bag until hanging left and putting on the brakes on the run-in. He’s not the first to do that at Sandown, and won’t be the last.

Harper’s Brook does have some “previous” when it comes to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. He’s lost after trading at 1.01, 1.04 and 1.12 on Betfair, so perhaps consider an insurance policy.

Kielan Wood was on board at Sandown and has again been pencilled in for the ride. Expect him to count to at least ten before going for gold this time.

NOTLONGTILLMAY

Trainer: Laura Mongan. Odds: 15/2

Made great strides as a novice last season, winning handicaps at Wetherby (off 120), Musselburgh (124) and Musselburgh again (134) before being dropped in at the deep end for the Turners.

Notlongtillmay rose to the challenge and had a ding-dong tussle with Stage Star before going down by just over three lengths.

Stage Star appeared to show superior stamina but he had got a softish lead and the rematch could be a different story as he’s 3lb worse off and will be having his first run of the campaign.

By contrast, Notlongtillmay will arrive fighting fit after his highly encouraging return over 2m at Cheltenham last month when a close fourth to Dancing On My Own.

That run should have put him spot-on for this assignment and the Old Course at Cheltenham, less draining than the New Course (on which the Turners was staged), also looks like suiting him.