Panthers vs Blues Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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12 March 2023

Panthers vs Blues Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

Jordan Binnington is a... polarizing figure in the NHL and this season has been a rough go for the on-edge goalie. With the loaded Panthers coming into St. Louis, our picks expect the Blues' goalie to struggle yet again.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Central Division’s St. Louis Blues host the Atlantic Division’s Florida Panthers in what should be an entertaining matchup. Two important points are on the line in this contest, considering that both clubs are attempting to climb the ladder of their respective conferences and claim a wild card spot.

Will the Panthers take care of business as a short road favorite, or can the Blues defend home ice? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Blues on Tuesday, February 14.

Panthers vs Blues best odds

Panthers vs Blues picks and predictions

Losing seven of their last 10 games, the St. Louis Blues enter this contest in terrible form. Not only have they lost seven of their last 10, but the three wins came against the lowly Arizona Coyotes, Nashville Predators, and Ottawa Senators.

Tough sledding will likely continue as goaltender Jordan Binnington is slated to start between the pipes for the Blues. It has been a tough campaign for Binnington, who is just 19-18-3 with a .890 save percentage (SV%) and 3.31 goals against average (GAA) through 40 starts.

Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, Binnington is just 1-4 with a .857 SV% and 4.39 GAA over his last five starts. Based on his underlying metrics, better days are unlikely for the Blues’ netminder.

Among starting goaltenders, Binnington ranks just 25th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Now, to be fairer to Binnington, the blue line in front of him is terrible.

At 5-on-5, St. Louis ranks just 25th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). This poor defensive play is not surprising given the aging group of defensemen on this roster, a group that has regressed each of the last few seasons.

However, more surprisingly, this offense is also struggling mightily despite its vast depth. At 5-on-5, the Blues rank 27th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).

Shipping winger Vladimir Tarasenko to the Rangers at the trade deadline certainly will not make things any better for the Blues, a move in which indicates that they are likely punting on the season barring a quick turnaround.

On the flip side, the Florida Panthers outrank St. Louis in every category of this contest. At 5-on-5, the Panthers rank first in the league in xGF/60 and 22nd in xGA/60.

Backing up this superior lineup is goaltender Spencer Knight, who is projected to start in net for Florida. Through 19 appearances in the crease this season, Knight possesses a .906 SV% and 3.06 GAA.

While he has not put together the most consistently strong season, he still outranks Binnington in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. With the better goaltender, defense, and offense in this matchup, the Panthers are the team to back at -120.

My best bet: Panthers moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)

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Panthers vs Blues moneyline analysis

The main reason that the Panthers are just -120 on the moneyline is that the Blues have not played since Saturday while Florida enters this contest on the second half of a back-to-back, following Monday’s 2-1 shootout victory over the Wild. However, the Panthers won on their most recent back-to-back against the Bruins.

If they can beat Boston on zero days of rest, then they can certainly beat St. Louis. For those who want a bit more risk, taking Florida -1.5 at nearly +200 is certainly not a bad play to make.

Five of the Panthers’ last seven wins have come by at least a two-goal margin while each of the Blues’ last seven losses were by a minimum of two goals.

Panthers vs Blues Over/Under analysis

The Over is a strong play in this contest, although it will be important to grab the line at 6.5 in case it jumps to seven. Florida is a powerhouse offensively, while the Blues bleed high-danger scoring chances at a high clip.

Additionally, neither of these two goaltenders has been particularly impressive. My main two concerns would be the Blues’ offense not living up to their side of the bargain and the potential of tired legs from the Panthers since they are on the second half of a back-to-back and Monday night’s contest went to a shootout.

While I lean toward the Over, I would rather just back Florida to take care of business on the road.