Bruins vs Blues Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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02 April 2023

Bruins vs Blues Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

The Bruins' momentum seemingly can't be stopped, and they take on a weak St. Louis side this Sunday. Find out why our NHL betting picks are expecting another dominant performance from Boston in the Gateway City.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

In Sunday’s NHL matinee on TNT, the Central Division’s St. Louis Blues host the Atlantic Division’s Boston Bruins.

Expected to be a lopsided affair, Boston has won four of the last six meetings between these two clubs, with three of those four wins coming by at least a two-goal margin.

Will the Bruins take care of business as heavy favorites, or can the Blues pull off the upset on home ice? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Bruins vs Blues on Sunday, April 2.

Bruins vs Blues best odds

Bruins vs Blues picks and predictions

Entering this contest in utterly dominant form, the Boston Bruins have won nine of their last 10 games. This trend is likely to continue in a matchup against the lowly St. Louis Blues, a team that punted on the season at the trade deadline after shipping out both Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly.

Confirmed to start between the pipes for the Bruins in this contest is goaltender Linus Ullmark, who is going to win the Vezina Trophy this season. Through 46 appearances in the crease, he is 37-6-1 with a league-leading .938 save percentage (SV%) and 1.88 goals against average (GAA).

Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for the Bruins' netminder. Among starting goaltenders, Ullmark ranks first in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Across the ice, goaltender Jordan Binnington is starting between the pipes for St. Louis. It has been a particularly tough year for Binnington, who is 25-25-5 with a .891 SV% and a 3.40 GAA through 56 appearances in the crease.

Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 22nd in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. Not only does Boston boast the advantage in net, but it is also far better both offensively and defensively.

The Bruins rank ninth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at even strength, and third in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Meanwhile, the Blues rank just 28th in xGF/60 and 26th in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

Additionally, Boston is the superior club on special teams, ranking far higher than St. Louis in both power play percentage and penalty kill percentage. With the better offense, defense, goaltender, and special teams, there is little reason to believe that the Bruins will not coast to an easy two points in this contest.

My best bet: Bruins -1.5 (+114 at BetRivers)

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Bruins vs Blues moneyline analysis

Ullmark’s strong play in net is likely to continue against the Blues, a team he typically dominates. Across five career starts against St. Louis, Ullmark boasts a .923 SV% and a 2.18 GAA.

If you are going to fade the Blues, then it is more profitable to take the puck line rather than lay the big juice on the moneyline. Of St. Louis’ last 20 losses, 16 have come by at least a two-goal differential.

To make matters worse for the flailing Blues, they are expected to miss Marco Scandella, Pavel Buchnevich, and Robert Thomas on Sunday. For a team that already struggles mightily in its two-way play, missing those three guys is going to be especially problematic against the dominant Bruins.

Bruins vs Blues Over/Under analysis

Boston is a difficult team to handicap the total for, which is why I am staying away from the O/U in this contest. On the one hand, the Bruins boast the best goaltender in the league this season with Ullmark, who is going to win the Vezina Trophy.

In front of Ullmark is one of the best defensive teams in the league, a group that ranks third in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. However, the offense is almost as dominant, ranking ninth in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

David Pastrnak should continue to stuff the net against the lowly Blues in his chase for 60 goals. While St. Louis is one of the best Over teams in the league, its scoring is due for regression, as it ranks 10th in the league in GF/60 at 5-on-5, but 28th in xGF/60.