Patriots vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Will Defenses Dominate?

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22 September 2023

Patriots vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Will Defenses Dominate?

Two AFC East rivals in desperate need of a win meet as the New York Jets host the New England Patriots, and we have you covered with our top Patriots-Jets predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

New England is 0-2 and hasn't started 0-3 since head coach Bill Belichick’s first season with the team in 2000. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-1 after a 30-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys and have dropped 14 consecutive games to the Patriots, with their last win coming on Dec. 27, 2015.

We're looking at this divisional clash and more with our NFL predictions for Week 3.

Here is our best Patriots-Jets prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patriots vs. Jets prediction

Under 37 (-110 via Caesars, bet365)⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Patriots-Jets matchup is getting the lowest total for the Week 3 slate, and it's one of only two contests in the 30s. And based on how both defenses are playing and the offensive ineptitude of both sides, even this 37-point total isn't low enough.

New York has scored just two offensive touchdowns in 2023 and is coming off its eighth consecutive game with 22 or fewer points. Quarterback Zach Wilson endured his third career three-interception contest in Week 2, and he hasn't been able to solve Bill Belichick’s defenses while going 0-4 against the Patriots with a 2:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

On the other side, a New England starting offensive lineman has missed each of the first two weeks. Quarterback Mac Jones was sacked four times and hit eight others without left tackle Trent Brown in front of him during Week 2.

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

While we respect New England’s streak of beating the Jets 14 straight times, the Patriots don't come in with the best momentum. They faced a double-digit deficit at some point in each of their first two games, the first time that's happened to a Belichick-coached team to start a season since 1992.

New York has been enjoying the luxury of leaving cornerback Sauce Gardner on an island while committing extra defenders to stop the run. The Jets held the Cowboys to 3.0 yards per carry on 44 attempts. Only nine teams across the last 10 seasons have limited an opponent to a yards-per-carry output that low on 40-plus rushing attempts, and New York was the first of those squads to keep a foe without a rushing touchdown, according to Jets team reporter Ethan Greenberg.

While we expect the Jets to hold up defensively, they'll also be force-feeding running back Breece Hall after he recorded just four carries against Dallas. New York gave Wilson max protection just once against the Cowboys, so the team will likely sacrifice opportunities for significant plays to keep its quarterback upright.

And since Wilson’s four interceptions are tied for the league lead, we expect the Jets to move forward with a conservative offensive game plan. They'll be content to let the defense win the game instead of risking Wilson being responsible for a loss.

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Patriots vs. Jets best odds

With this low total, we'll take all the points we can get as Under backers. We're therefore passing on the 36.5 at BetMGM, even though the Under is less juiced at -105 odds. Instead, Caesars and bet365 offer the best value at -110, trumping FanDuel’s total of 37 since it's charging more (-115) to back the Under.

Patriots vs. Jets odds

All of our best sportsbooks reached a high of 37.5 at some point this week before Under backers weighed in and drove the total down further. However, the betting splits (52% in favor of the Under) suggest the line move could be more weather-related, as precipitation on Sunday afternoon is likely.

DraftKings is the only shop offering a spread of Jets +3 (-118), as all others are under the key number of -2.5. FanDuel and BetMGM reached -3, with the former getting there slightly later on Tuesday. But all of our best live betting sites have remained at -2.5 since the last line move.