PECOTA projections have Braves as World Series favorite

The annual PECOTA projections have arrived at Baseball Prospectus and the Atlanta Braves have the best World Series odds of any team heading into the 2024 season. You might remember that PECOTA has historically been low on the Braves during their run of six-straight division titles. They were projected to finish second in the NL East in 2023. PECOTA had them slated for a fourth place finish in 2021 and we all remember how that season turned out. It also could be said that up until about August in 2021, the Braves weren’t terribly far from that projection.

PECOTA gives the Braves an 18.7% chance to win the World Series in 2024. That is slightly better than the Dodgers who are at 17.1%. Interestingly enough, the Dodgers are projected for 101.1 wins which is slightly higher than the 100.7 for Atlanta, but the Braves still have the edge in World Series chances. The Houston Astros are the favored by the system in the American League at 12.1%.

What is interesting is the sheer domination that is projected for the Braves in the NL East. The Phillies are projected for just 84.3 wins and are followed by the Mets, Marlins and Nationals.

In the past, Atlanta’s pitching staff has been what often held them back in previous projections. I’m guessing that the emergence of Spencer Strider and the addition of Chris Sale along with a restocked bullpen helped make a difference.