Pegasus World Cup 2024: Odds and analysis for wide-open field

A full field of 12 was drawn for the eighth running of the Grade 1, $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, and National Treasure was named the 9-5 morning-line favorite.

In its first six years, the Pegasus was dominated by short prices and favorites, with odds ranging from .80-1 in 2022 when Life Is Good was the winner to the longest odds of 3.40-1 by Mucho Gusto in 2020. But the pattern changed last year when the 6-year-old Art Collector won as a 15.50-1 long shot.

Four-year-old National Treasure is the only Grade 1 winner in the field and the leading earner with $1.6 million. In total, there are four millionaires and eight graded-stakes winners in the Pegasus Field.

Here is the analysis for the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup with the official track morning-line odds. The Pegasus is scheduled as the final race of 13 with post time set for 5:40 p.m. EST.

1. Nimitz Class, 20-1. Munnings – George Weaver / Edgard Zayas – 21: 11-4-1 - $717,080. Nimitz Class has six victories in stakes races out of his 11 career wins. The 5-year-old Pennsylvania-bred prefers to press the pace and had a record of 9: 5-3-1 last year. After an amazingly consistent career, Nimitz Class moves to the barn of George Weaver to make only the second start in a graded-stakes race. In June, he was second in the Salvator Mile (G3) at Monmouth Park. Frequently the favorite, he will be a long shot in this Grade 1. Use underneath.

2. O’Connor, 8-1. Boboman – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Paco Lopez – 27: 12-7-3 - $749,319. O’Connor won nine races in Chile before coming to the U.S. He is at the top of his American career right now with victories in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) at Gulfstream Park and the Fayette (G2) at Keeneland, where he raced from off the pace. Win contender.

3. Dynamic One, 15-1. Union Rags – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 14: 4-3-1 - $730,570. Dynamic One came back in December after a 15 month layoff to run fifth in an allowance race. In 2022 he won the Blame at Churchill and then the 10-furlong Suburban (G2) at Belmont Park. Thus, the nine-furlong distance of the Pegasus will not be a problem for the 6-year-old son of Union Rags. Trainer Todd Pletcher won this race in 2022 with Life Is Good. Irad Ortiz stays on board. Live long shot.

4. Hoist the Gold, 12-1. Mineshaft – Dallas Stewart / John Velazquez – 26: 5-6-3 - $1,119,547. Hoist the Gold stretched out to win the Cigar Mile (G2) at Aqueduct by more than four lengths with a front-end effort at 8-1 after a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and a win in the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland. The 5-year-old will try the nine-furlong distance for the first time. Hoist the Gold is expected to be on the lead of a fast pace in the Pegasus. Toss.

5. Trademark, 15-1. Upstart – Vickie Oliver/ Fernando De La Cruz – 22: 6-3-1 - $1,055,865. Trademark became a Grade 2 winner in his last start, which was in November in the Clark at Churchill. In that race, he rallied from a stalking position to finish a nose ahead of First Mission, and it was farther back to Il Miracolo. His last five races were at four tracks and produced a pair of wins and seconds. Trifecta finish possible.

6. Senor Buscador, 20-1. Mineshaft – Todd Fincher / Junior Alvarado – 16: 6-1-2 - $923,427. Senor Buscador faced Grade 1 and 2 competition in his last six starts and typically closed from far back. He was second in the Cigar Mile last month after an eight-wide trip, third in the Awesome Again (G1) and got a victory in the San Diego Handicap (G2) in July. Since the Cigar, Senor Buscador trained at Gulfstream to prepare for the Pegasus. Use underneath.

7. National Treasure, 9-5. Quality Road – Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat – 10: 2-2-2 - $1,603,000. National Treasure was last seen setting the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, where he battled with the probable horse of the year Cody’s Wish. Those two bumped and battled to the wire, and National Treasure lost by a nose. The 4-year-old ran in eight Grade 1 races after his debut maiden victory with only one other win, which came in the Preakness. When National Treasure got an early lead, he had his best results. Trainer Bob Baffert won the inaugural Pegasus with Arrogate and in 2020 with Mucho Gusto. Win contender.

8. First Mission, 7-2. Street Sense – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 5: 3-2-0 - $464,110. First Mission is the most lightly raced horse in the field with just five starts. He won the Lexington (G3) on the Kentucky Derby trail last year and then had to lay off until October. He came back to take an allowance at Keeneland with a stalking trip and then had the lead in the Clark (G2) before missing by a nose. Trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Pegasus with Knicks Go. Top choice.

9. Grand Aspen, 8-1. Dialed In – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz – 8: 2-3-1 - $201,660. Grand Aspen moved to the barn of Todd Pletcher last year and began a steady and significant improvement in six starts with only top-three finishes. He broke his maiden on the turf in August at Ellis Park and then moved back to the dirt for his last three starts. Grand Aspen won an allowance at Churchill and then pressed the pace in the Harlan’s Holiday to miss the victory by a nose. Win contender.

10. Il Miracolo, 20-1. Gun Runner – Antonio Sano / Javier Castellano – 16: 3-5-2 - $518,375. Il Miracolo became a Grade 3 winner in the Smarty Jones at Parx Racing in preparation for the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), where he finished third. Since then he was second by a head in the Fayette and third in the Clark. Those last two races were the first times he raced against older horses. Two of his three victories were at Gulfstream. Toss.

11. Crupi, 20-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / Frankie Dettori – 12: 4-2-3 - $372,750. It took eight starts for Crupi to get his maiden victory after five top-three finishes and a pair of starts on the Derby trail. Since that initial victory in July at Monmouth, he won three more times with an allowance at Saratoga and finished fifth in the Penn Derby after a rough start put him in last. Crupi then had a pair of wins at Aqueduct going the nine-furlong distance in the Discovery and Queens County. Toss.

12. Skippylongstocking, 8-1. Exaggerator – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione – 20: 6-2-4 - $1,594,185. Skippylongstocking raced exclusively in graded stakes with wins in the Challenger (G3) in March at Tampa Bay Downs and the Charles Town Classic (G2) in August. Last seen, the 5-year-old came back from a short layoff to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after pressing the pace. Toss.

AE. Castle Chaos, 20-1. Palace Malice – Rob Falcone Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione – 13: 3-3-4 - $280,460.

Summary: The 2024 Pegasus World Cup has a wide-open field where the handicapping is influenced by the post-position draw and a projected fast pace.

The races run at the nine-furlong distance at Gulfstream start close to the turn and the horses breaking from the far outside get fanned out very wide, losing significant ground. Runners such as Skippylongstocking, Grand Aspen and Il Miracolo who want to be close to the lead are likely to get far behind coming out of the first turn.

Morning-line favorite National Treasure needs to get to the lead because that is how he won the Preakness and just missed in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. The five times that he did not get forwardly placed he did not finish better than third.

In a field where there is only one Grade 1 winner, First Mission will be the top choice. The Brad Cox runner can sit a stalking trip and could take a big step forward as a lightly raced 4-year-old.