Pegasus World Cup 2024: Race-Day Bets, Odds, And First Mission’s Mission To Run Down National Treasure

It's axiomatic that the 2024 running of the $3-million Pegasus World Cup Invitational will be hotly contested, and the afternoon project for the anointed eleven: will be to take down current favorite and Preakness winner, the front National Treasure. The man who got scratched from last year's Preakness (giving National Treasure one less big hurdle en route to his win) and that man is: First Mission. We've yet to see a big duel between First Mission and this afternoon's favorite, and if it happens, it oughta be fun.

The long answer is, in a field this layered and uneven, there are more candidates than just Firs Mission that have the guts and who may engineer for themselves a great race that would take down the Preakness winner. Todd Pletcher's Grand Aspen looks a good spoiler. Skippylongstocking could edge it out if . But since this Pegasus is this Pegasus, there are of course more that clamor for our consideration.

If National Treasure succeeds in doing what many think he might, namely, get out front and set the pace, there are a handful of others who might just have the moxie, and the gas, to slot into his wake. That's what's going to make betting this race such perilous fun. Because: Whatever else he is besides being a Triple Crown-race-winning champion and today's favorite, National Treasure is not the "fastest" horse out there.

But before we dive into what Brad Cox and Luis Saez have in mind for First Mission, among others, herewith, an odds refresher:

(Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line)

1) Nimitz Class, Bruce M Kravets, Edgard J. Zayas, 20-1

2) O'Connor, Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., Paco Lopez, 8-1

3) Dynamic One, Todd A. Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, Jr., 15-1

4) Hoist the Gold, Dallas Stewart, John R. Velazquez, 12-1

5) Trademark, Victoria H. Oliver, Fernando De La Cruz , 15-1

6) Senor Buscador, Todd W. Fincher, Junior Alvarado, 20-1

7) National Treasure, Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 9-5

8) First Mission, Brad H. Cox, Luis Saez, 7-2

9) Grand Aspen, Todd A. Pletcher, Jose L. Ortiz, 8-1

10) Il Miracolo, Antonio Sano, Javier J. Castellano, 20-1

11) Crupi, Todd A. Pletcher, Frankie Dettori, 20-1

12) Skippylongstocking, Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., Tyler Gaffalione 8-1

13) Castle Chaos, Robert N. Falcone, Jr., (Alternate Entry)

(Source: Gulfstream, 1/25/2024)

It's also axiomatic that any race horse, even those at the peak of their powers, can be beat. There is some speed to be expected out of Nimitz Class, but not enough to stop National Treasure and Flavien Prat. If National Treasure gets comfortably out front, the race will be explicable, and First Mission will have a big job in front of him to run National Treasure down. Saez and First Mission will be faced with a choice: Target him early, work by him and try to get him stymied in traffic so that they can control the pace, or slot in after him and try to take him in the last furlongs.

But let's step back from that for a moment. To give us a barometric pressure reading of the craziness of the crazy-quilt of the Pegasus field, it's instructive to take a look at the industry bible. The Daily Racing Form's formidable David Aragona, a writer and oddsmaker who is not afraid of the legwork involved in long-form handicapping nor is he afraid of risk, is, for his own admirable reasons (exotics that pay well), looking decidedly outside the top morning-line second-tier favorites of First Mission, Skippylongstocking, Grand Aspen and O'Connor.

The DRF writer admits upfront that he still doesn't have a clear picture of how the race is likely to unfold — not many do, in fact — but that itself is a fine indication of just how complex this Pegasus field is. So, as a way to bring the race into sharper focus, Aragona's exercise was to take a look at some of the horses who carry the very highest morning line odds against them.

Note: None of this bottom-fishing means that Aragona will necessarily ignore National Treasure, First Mission, or any of the more favored athletes in his plays. Instead, he re-rates the entire field with what he calls "fair odds," a math-and-research-driven re-calculation of the runners' probabilities to win. In this instance, the result is a new light on the top tier of favorites, but more importantly, the calculations give us a prism on the race through which some good, fun longshots get coughed up.

It's about picking the best "interesting" (read: high-value) bets. Said another way, these are the longshots we should be considering as opposed to simply throwing the longshot dollars into the wind and letting the field have its way with them. Notably, Aragona also slots in Senor Buscador at a bracing, new 8-1 as the slightly wobbly third favorite behind National Treasure (in his "fair" odds at 3-1) and the Cox-trained First Mission (at a "fair" 6-1).

But on his good-longshot search, Aragona's numbers tell us that Trademark, Il Miracolo, and Crupi will offer the best value with reasonable (or at least not-unreasonable) shots at a win. As we know, all three of these runners are at the very bottom of the pack at 20-1 on the morning line. Aragona slots them differently: Trademark is 10-1, Il Miracolo is 10-1, and Crupi, the longest shot of these longshots (and the one who has moved in his numbers the least), sits at 18-1. It's about looking for good, natural spoilers who will bring a price.

The reasoning is that Trademark has arguably the most talent of this triumvirate, and by rights should have possibly earned lower odds, but he wasn't pointed to this race, or, as Aragona puts it, he's been entered "as an afterthought."

For their part, Il Miracolo and Crupi have both been improving most impressively, and more or less doing that under the radar. It's a given that the one-and-one-eighth-mile Pegasus is ideally suited to Preakness winner National Treasure, which is the reason for his 9-5 top slot on the morning line.

Bottom line? Love National Treasure and First Mission and their purported, hoped-for stretch duel all you like, but in fashioning your plays on a field as dicey and riven with unknown talents as the 2024 Pegasus, hew to the original definition of the sport and act on Lou Reed's advice: Take a walk on the wild side.