Pelicans vs. Bucks same-game parlay picks: Fade New Orleans’ offence
The New Orleans Pelicans face off with the Milwaukee Bucks in search of their first win since January 13 on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: New Orleans is likely to struggle on offence in a game where the odds are heavily stacked against them. Meanwhile, former Pelican Jrue Holiday is likely to thrive against a defence that could be more vulnerable than its season-long numbers suggest.
Odds as of 11:17 a.m. on 01/29/2023.
Pelicans vs. Bucks same-game parlay
Pelicans under 112.5 points + Bucks -5 + Holiday over 6.5 assists (+265)
Pelicans under 112.5 points (-117): This line is too high for a Pelicans offence missing Zion. In his most recent 13-game absence, New Orleans has averaged 108.5 points per game, hitting this under eight times.
They’ve been especially bad lately, falling short of 113 points in seven consecutive games and averaging 101.4.
The return of Brandon Ingram provides some hope that the Pelicans can start filling the bucket at a higher clip, but he’s still working his way back into rhythm. He’s shot just 30% from the field on 40 attempts in his first two games back, making him a net negative to the team’s offence so far.
Bucks -5 (-215): We’re teasing down the spread a bit, but Milwaukee has just about everything going in its favour in this game. That starts with home-court advantage, as the Bucks are 19-5 at Fiserv Forum while the Pelicans have a 9-15 road record.
New Orleans has also been in a tailspin recently as they deal with Williamson’s absence. The Pelicans have lost seven games in a row by an average of 10.4 points, covering this spread just twice.
They are also playing the second leg of a back-to-back, while the Bucks were able to rest on Saturday. A blowout is well within the realm of possibility here.
Holiday over 6.5 assists (-137): This is a line Holiday has consistently cleared this season, and we’re especially encouraged by what he’s done lately.
The veteran point guard has hit this over in seven of his last eight games, averaging 8.5 dimes per contest during that span. The return of Khris Middleton — albeit in a limited role so far — should reduce Holiday’s scoring load and allow him to focus on distributing the ball.
New Orleans had one of the highest-rated defences in the NBA earlier in the season, but their defensive rating ranks 15th since January 1. An average defence on tired legs is a good group to rack up assists against.
