Pelicans vs. Bucks: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions

Pelicans vs. Bucks Odds

This week’s NBA action will conclude on Sunday evening with a matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks. Entering play, New Orleans (26-24) owns the fifth-best record in the Western Conference. Milwaukee (32-17) owns the third-best record in the Eastern Conference, three games behind the Boston Celtics for the 1-seed. Oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable win for Milwaukee in this spot, pricing the Bucks as 11-point home favorites on the spread.

New Orleans Pelicans

Ingram, McCollum, Williamson OUT

This evening, New Orleans will be missing each of their top three offensive threats, with Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, and Zion Williamson ruled out. In a sample size of 673 possessions this season, New Orleans ranks in the first percentile with each of these three players off of the floor at the same time – scoring only 102.8 points per 100 possessions.

Who will step up for the Pelicans?

Per CourtIQ, when New Orleans is without their top-three scorers, Jose Alvarado (+4.6%) and Herbert Jones (+4.6%) see the largest increase in usage on the roster. In these situations, Alvarado is averaging 18.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per 36 minutes of action. Jones is averaging 12.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per 36 minutes.

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Milwaukee Bucks

Portis OUT

On Sunday, Bobby Portis will miss his third consecutive contest due to an MCL sprain. In 47 games played this season, Portis is averaging 14.4 points and 10.1 rebounds – the latter of which ranks second on the team.

In his absence, Jrue Holiday sees a modest increase in rebounding rate, with 6.4 rebounds per 36 minutes of action. In Holiday’s last two games, he has 14 total rebounds on 12.0 rebound chances per game.

Big Three back together

Today will be Khris Middleton’s fourth game since returning from an extended absence due to injury. In each of the last three games, Middleton has been limited to 15 minutes of playing time, averaging 11.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists.

Though Middleton is not back to 100% health, his presence on the court has been a major boon to Milwaukee’s offense. Across their last three games, the Bucks are scoring 120.6 points per 100 possessions. Per Cleaning the Glass, in the limited time that Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton have been on the floor together this year, the team ranks in the 99th percentile in offensive efficiency.

Pelicans vs. Bucks – Picks & Predictions

There is little question as to which of these teams is better prepared to play basketball on Sunday. New Orleans is without each of their top-three leading scorers and Milwaukee recently returned Khris Middleton to the floor. Playing at home, the Bucks are likely to face little resistance on the offensive end of the floor. Even if Milwaukee is not fully committed on the defensive end of the floor in this matchup, the lack of offensive threats for New Orleans will significantly hinder their ability to put the ball in the basket. Expect Milwaukee to roll here.

PICK: Bucks -11 (-110, Caesars)