Pelicans vs. Thunder odds, prediction: NBA play-in tournament picks

It’s been a long season for the Pelicans, who were once perched atop the Western Conference before a precipitous fall that saw this team slip to the No. 12 spot just a few weeks ago.

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An inspired rally late in the year saved New Orleans’ season and set up Wednesday’s clash with the Thunder, who are ahead of schedule this year after two straight seasons with at least 50 losses.

Can OKC shock the world and clinch its first playoff spot since 2019-20?

Here’s how we’re betting Wednesday’s contest, which tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Pelicans vs. Thunder odds

• Pelicans -5.5 (-110), moneyline -225
• Thunder +5.5 (-110), moneyline +180
• O/U 226.5 (over -115)

Pelicans vs. Thunder prediction and analysis

(9:30 p.m. ET., ESPN)

The Pelicans opened as 4.5-point favorites in this matchup, but we’ve seen their price bumped up as the week progresses, even as the Thunder appear to draw the public’s interest.

And while OKC feels like a trendy underdog pick here, it’s easy to see why New Orleans is the clear favorite in this spot.

This team looked like a sneaky dark-horse contender at the beginning of the 2023 calendar year, when it was firmly a top-three seed in the West with Zion Williamson leading the way as an unstoppable force down low.

Then the star big man suffered a hamstring sprain that’s sidelined him ever since, and the team lost 23 of its next 33 games – falling as far as 12th in the West with a 33-37 record and a slim path to the postseason ahead.

We’ve seen an entirely different team since – the Pelicans have won nine of their last 12 games (8-3-1 ATS) with the NBA’s third-best net rating (+10.2) over that 12-game span, trailing only the Celtics (+15.6) and Warriors (+13.2) across the roughly four-week stretch.

A key reason has been Brandon Ingram, who averaged 29 points, 8.4 assists, and 6.8 rebounds across those 12 games – the only player to hit those marks in the league over the last month.

He’s also posted ridiculous shooting splits in this stretch while recording the first two triple-doubles of his career, both in blowout wins.

He’ll be a handful for the Thunder’s inconsistent defense, which ranks in the bottom 10 in efficiency (117.0) over the team’s last 10 games.

Oklahoma City has posted a miserable 2-8 ATS record in that span, with six outright losses to fall into the No. 10 spot in the West.

That’ll force this team to hit the road for Wednesday’s play-in game, which is another challenge for Mark Daigneault’s squad.

Only eight teams posted a worse net rating in away games this year than the Thunder (-3.1), who lost five of their final six road tilts to close out the regular season.

That’s to say nothing of the massive experience gap between these two teams ahead of Wednesday’s contest, which isn’t technically a playoff game but sure walks and talks like one.

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The Pelicans nearly knocked off the top-seeded Suns in last year’s postseason and are led by two heady scorers in Ingram and CJ McCollum, who have 69 playoff appearances between them.

Conversely, OKC’s four leading scorers have a combined 19 playoff games under their belt, with all but six coming in the bubble in 2020.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled mightily to find his shot in that 2020 playoff run, which was his last taste of postseason action.

He’s a different player now than he was then, but I’m still not sold that his star shines brighter in this spot than what we’ve seen from New Orleans, which has played hungry for weeks and should be able to take control of this one late.