Penn State vs. Ohio State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 8

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19 October 2023

Penn State vs. Ohio State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 8

The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the only matchup between undefeated programs during Week 8, and our top Penn State vs. Ohio State prediction is calling for an Under. All our top college football picks are based on the NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Penn State-Ohio State matchup will have huge implications for determining the winner of the Big Ten East division and it will also have a huge impact on the College Football National Championship odds. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State and Penn State respectively begin the week with the second- and third-best odds to win it all this season.

Ohio State has won 10 of the previous 11 tmeetings between these two teams, including each of the past six. Can Penn State buck the trend?

As part of our college football predictions for Week 8, here is our best Penn State vs. Ohio State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Penn State vs. Ohio State prediction: Week 8

Under 47 (-110 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

: This total has now moved to 46 at Caesars, and down to 45.5 at some of our other best sports betting sites.

The Over/Under for this game has the potential to swing quite a bit based on pending injury news. But even in the most optimistic case, this 47-point total seems too high.

Ohio State was without wideout Emeka Egbuka when facing Purdue last week, its third-leading receiver in receptions (22) and yards (303). Running back TreVeyon Henderson went through warmups, but didn't play, and neither did fellow running back Miyan Williams. Ohio State’s backfield depth took an even bigger hit when Chip Trayanum left last week’s game in the first quarter.

Those injuries are concerning for a Buckeyes offense that enters the week ranked outside the top 50 in EPA/Rush and Rushing Success Rate. Penn State’s stout defense allows 2.4 yards per carry and ranks in the top 10 nationally in Rushing Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate Allowed, and Ohio State’s chances of sustaining drives through the air are also not high, considering the Nittany Lions have the nation’s best-passing defense (121.2 yards per game) to complement the second-best scoring defense (8.0 points per game).

Ohio State also features a stout defense that leads the nation in yards per play allowed. While the Buckeyes rank outside the top 60 in passing explosiveness allowed, they are the only Big Ten team not to allow a 20-yard touchdown all season. They forced the Boilermakers into more three-and-outs (five) than 20-plus yard plays allowed (three). The Buckeyes had allowed only 12 such plays entering the week.

This is a four-star play, as the only two games where Nittany Lions sophomore quarterback Drew Allar has had a QBR worse than 70 are in Penn State’s two road games against Illinois and Northwestern, games where he completed just 51.5% of his passes and threw for 6.0 yards per attempt with just one touchdown.

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

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Penn State vs. Ohio State best odds

Caesars, bet365 (-110)

Caesars and bet365 are our go-to shops as Under backers, as they are the only two of our best sports betting sites offering the best number of 47, but also at a standard price of -110 odds.

There is a chance this number increases if Egbuka and Henderson are declared active, but in that case, we are comfortable with this as a play up to 49. However, we are locking in this number early, as there is a chance that the weather forecast could worsen (currently calling for just morning showers in Columbus), or pessimistic injury news surrounding Ohio State’s skill position players could cause the number to drop further.

Penn State vs. Ohio State odds

FanDuel saw the biggest drop across the best sports betting apps, as the O/U plummeted from an opening number of 52.5 on Sunday morning to a low of 46.5 just five hours later. The line bounced back to 48.5 later in the weekend, but Under backers continued to weigh in and drive the number down to 46.5 again.

The line movement is likely a combination of sharp action and the oddsmakers getting ahead of any injury news, as the betting splits are dead even at 50/50. The Over has cashed in Penn State’s last four games against top-15 AP-ranked opponents.

FanDuel and BetMGM are the only two of our best sportsbooks offering a spread of Ohio State -4.5, as all other shops are in unison with -4. Any line movement to this point has gone in Penn State’s favor, as most of the sportsbooks currently at -4 have reached there from an opening number of -4.5. This movement aligns with the betting splits, as 71% of the early wagers are on the Nittany Lions. This is unsurprising, considering Penn State has covered the spread in 13 consecutive games.