Personal Ensign fair odds: Nest is best but is likely to be overbet

I couldn’t believe my eyes. A steady stream of Tweets asking about some combination of the vulnerability of Nest and the ability of Idiomatic in the upcoming Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes on Friday at Saratoga.

Were people really questioning whether last year’s champion 3-year-old filly Nest was beatable in this race after winning her seasonal bow over multiple Grade 1 winner and Personal Ensign entrant Clairière so impressively?

At first I was incredulous, but then I was curious. When sharp people like Nick Tamarro and Mary Rufo are asking questions about beating 4-5 morning-line favorites, you owe it to yourself as a handicapper to take a closer look.

And in the words of Josemonkey, "So, what can we see?"

Well, Nick and Mary are right. Idiomatic has a big chance in here. Not only are her figures at least as fast as this group, but she also sports a potential pace edge from the rail while also getting four pounds from the top two morning-line choices.

Here's the rub, though. She’s 3-1 on the morning line, and if Nest is not actually odds on as her morning line suggests, then I think it is Idiomatic who takes that money, which means she's not a good bet. 

I see no scenario in which Nest ends up longer than my fair odds of 2-1, so if Idiomatic attracts attention, then maybe that makes Clairière playable. Yes, I think Nest is better, but if Nest is a $4 horse and Clairière is a $9 horse, which only happens if Idiomatic also gets overbet, then I’ll gamble with Clairière.

The only other wild card for me is Sixtythreecaliber, who gets six pounds from the top choices and fired a big number last out. I have her fair odds at 14-1, which is right around her morning line. If none of my top three choices offer value, then I can see her being worth an action bet to win and underneath the faves, as there will likely be opportunity in the exacta, even if it's just beating one of the top choices out of that number.

Secret Oath I just don’t care for. I do not want to waste capital on a horse I’d be completely guessing on. We all know the coach can work magic, and if she wins, that’s a fun chapter to add to the Lukas story, but I’d rather bet the 4. I appreciate Wayne Catalano trying with Malloy, but she’s completely overmatched against even the worst of the others.