PGA DFS Advice & Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2024)
Right off the bat, I’ll state the obvious. The DFS model is on freaking fire right now. Another profitable week is in the books, and we were literally an Adam Svensson missed cut away from shipping every single contest. As disheartening as it was to miss out on thousands of dollars by a handful of points, I am very encouraged by the consistent success we are enjoying in 2024.
Bay Hill is Arnie’s place. It also has a special place in my heart as the site of my biggest win as part of the golf betting and DFS industry. I rode Kurt Kitayama to a massive payday last season at the land of tea and lemonade and I feel equally locked in this season.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational underwent a slight format adjustment this season. It now features only 69 golfers with a limited cut after 36 holes. As an elevated event, the prize purse is massive, and only Tony Finau is missing from the top players in the world in attendance. The par-72 track is a daunting 7,400 yards and change. Tight fairways and brutal rough are accompanied by cavernous bunkers throughout. The lightning-fast Bermuda greens are guarded by more sand, water on nine holes and tightly mown collection areas. The API traditionally features some of the toughest scoring conditions on the PGA Tour.
PGA DFS: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2024)
(Salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Key statistics to consider are once again centered on ball-striking, with an advantage going to longer hitters. The trick is to combine tee-to-green metrics with the scrambling and bogey avoidance that will be required to win here. Par is an excellent score on many of the holes at Bay Hill.
Kitayama was nailed down the stretch last year with timely approach shots from over 200 yards and a short game bordering on spectacular. Out of the 69 golfers, my player pool will top out at around 25. Contest selection and using leverage plays are paramount in an event like this. Let’s dive in.
- Chalk Plays: Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Åberg
- Chalk Fades: Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa
- Leverage Plays: Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas
- Chalk Plays: Will Zalatoris, Matthieu Pavon, Jake Knapp
- Chalk Fades: Cameron Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Chris Kirk, Corey Conners
- Leverage Plays: Jason Day, Sahith Theegala, Si Woo Kim, Ben An
- Chalk Plays: Harris English, Erik van Rooyen, Min Woo Lee
- Chalk Fades: Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, Tom Hoge
- Leverage Plays: Kurt Kitayama, Nicolai Hojgaard, Austin Eckroat, Nick Taylor
