2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks, sleepers: Cam Young, Ludvig Åberg and Rory among the best bets

Will a longshot win again at the Arnold Palmer Invitational — or will predictability prevail in a player with great course history? For now, the only sure thing is that this weekend’s tournament is stacked. The 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational is the fourth signature event of the season, with 69 players entered. Tony Finau is the only notable opt-out from those who automatically qualified.

The top 50 and ties will make the cut after 36 holes. Players will need to be in control of their mid to long irons if they want to contend this week. Long irons will be tested immediately at the long par-3 No. 2 hole, where par is a solid score. The best drivers of the golf ball tend to win, or at least contend, at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, with no greater example than when Bryson DeChambeau blasted around Bay Hill in 2021.

This week I am building my models around driving distance, strokes gained on approach, strokes gained on approach from 175-200 yards, strokes gained on approach from 200-225 yards, par-5 scoring, sand save percentage, and putting on Bermuda. It’s no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is the number-one player in each of the first two models that I have made.

Arnold Palmer Invitational details

Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge — Orlando, Fla.

Designers: Dick Wilson; redesigned by Arnold Palmer in 2009

Par: 72

Yardage: 7,466 yards

Average green size: 7,500 square feet

Grass type: The course features Tif Bermuda grass and is recognized as the first to use the now-famous playing surface.

Hazards: Water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes, with strategic bunkering throughout the course.

Past champions: Kurt Kitayama 2023, Scottie Scheffler 2022, Bryson DeChambeau 2021, Tyrrell Hatton 2020, Francesco Molinari 2019, Rory McIlroy 2018, Marc Leishman 2017, Jason Day 2016. Tiger Woods won eight times at Bay Hill from 2000 to 2013.

Betting Slip

Rory McIlroy +900 would have contended last week at the Cognizant Classic if he managed to pack his putter. He lost over four strokes combined on the greens over the weekend and into Monday. He was still prolific off the tee, gaining over six strokes on the field off the tee, and got back to hitting his irons with some consistency as he gained more than 2 strokes on approach for the week. It’s a tough choice between backing McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler this week, but I am leaning toward taking Rory at the bigger odds.

Ludvig Åberg +2000 hasn’t been quite as dominant off the tee in 2024 as he was to finish up 2023. He lost over a stroke for the week off the tee at the Genesis Invitational, but I’m not too worried about it. He has still gained strokes on approach in four straight and has gained strokes putting in every tournament since The Sentry in January. He finished T24 here last year on his first try and has the exact style of game you want in order to win at Bay Hill.

Cameron Young +2500 finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic, gaining strokes across the board. He has gained strokes off the tee in every tournament since the Travelers in June 2023. He has gained more than 6 strokes combined on approach in his last three tournaments. He has two straight top-13 finishes here and looks poised to break through for a win very soon.

Sleepers

Byeong Hun An +5000 has made great strides in his career since he revamped his driver swing while competing on the Korn Ferry Tour. An has gained strokes off the tee in every tournament except one since the Valspar last year. That is a long streak of consistent strokes gained off the tee. He finished strong at the Cognizant Classic, where he finished T21 after gaining strokes across the board, including more than 1.6 off the tee. He has a 10th-place finish here in 2019 so there is some hope that he likes the course.

Emiliano Grillo +10000 has gained strokes off the tee in four straight tournaments and more than two strokes on approach in two out of his last three tournaments. He has played decently here, with two straight top-39 finishes. He will need to figure out his around-the-green game if he is to pay off for us at this price. He has lost over seven strokes around the green in his last two tournaments.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $11,300 had a horrific week on the greens at the Genesis Invitational, losing more than four strokes, and he also lost strokes on approach for the first time since the Tour Championship. The pricing brings him into play this week, but I would be cautious. I’m not saying to fade Scheffler. I’m just saying you shouldn’t go all in.

Rory McIlroy $10,600 See above.

Patrick Cantlay $10,000 hasn’t been nearly as good off the tee in 2024 as he was in 2023. He is coming off of a T4 at the Genesis Invitational, but that was due to gaining more than six strokes on the green. I know people will be tempted to use Cantlay as a pivot off of Rory and Scottie because of his T4 here last year and his T4 at the Genesis Invitational, but I’m not going to be one of them.

Viktor Hovland $9,900 continues to struggle on approach in 2024, and he skipped the Phoenix Open to get himself right. I think the rest helped, as he gained strokes off the tee and on approach at the Genesis Invitational. Since then, he has taken more time off to rest whatever has been ailing him. He finished second here in 2022 and 10th last year so he is starting to really dominate this golf course. He should be your pivot at the top of the board if you want to avoid a highly-owned Rory or Scottie.

Ludvig Åberg $9,500 See above.

Jordan Spieth $9,400 is coming off of two straight 4th-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But he was a bit lucky each time, as he struggled to find fairways at Bay Hill and still managed to score from spots no one else could. He is coming off of a frustrating DQ at the Genesis Invitational and would probably like to get some revenge this week, but I can’t pay up for him when there are so many good options below him.

Max Homa $9,200 seems like a solid pivot play this week in this low 9K range. He has three straight top-17 finishes here at Bay Hill and is coming off of a T16 at the Genesis Invitational. He hasn’t been as consistent or as dialed in with his irons as we saw in 2023, but he did gain 7.9 strokes on approach here last year which could be the boost of confidence he is looking for.

Will Zalatoris $8,900 knocked much of the rust off at the American Express, where he gained more than 1.9 strokes on approach. He then took it a step further by gaining across the board at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Genesis Invitational. He has a top 10 here in 2021. I expect over 25% ownership on Zalatoris this week.

Tommy Fleetwood $8,800 has some nice course history here but hasn’t been quite as sharp on the PGA Tour as he was on the DP World Tour to start 2024. I’m going to sprinkle him in as a pivot, but I’m not going to be near his ownership % this week.

Cameron Young $8,700 See above.

Matt Fitzpatrick $8,600 gained strokes across the board last week at the Cognizant Classic, but his gains off the tee and on approach were minimal. He loves it here, with four straight top-14 finishes and a second-place finish before that. He has to be in play for you this week, but it’s a tough choice between Young, Zalatoris and Fitzpatrick when it comes to who you play more.

Jason Day $8,200 enters with three top-10 finishes in five events so far in 2024. He won here in 2016 and has six top-25 finishes in 12 starts. I’ll likely use more players in the high $7k range or lower $7k range than Day in this spot.

Matthieu Pavon $7,900 has zero course history but has been one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour in 2024, so he can’t be ignored. Someone should check his putter for PEDs because he has gained more than 3 strokes putting in six straight tournaments on every type of surface.

Corey Conners $7,800 gained more than 3.5 strokes on approach in two straight tournaments and has gained off the tee in every tournament since The Players in 2023.

Byeong Hun An $7,600 See above.

Jake Knapp $7,600 can’t be ignored even if he struggles to find fairways.

Adam Scott $7,500 gets to tee it up this week on a sponsor’s exemption and comes into the week in excellent form. He finished T19 as a highly-owned option at the Genesis Invitational and should be in contention this week.

Keegan Bradley $7,400 has a great course history here, with three straight top-11 finishes. But he hasn’t been quite as good on approach lately, as he hasn’t gained more than 0.4 strokes on approach in any of his last three tournaments. Be careful being overweight on Bradley.

Harris English $7,300 gained strokes across the board at the Genesis Invitational and has gained more than 1.6 strokes off the tee in two straight. He finished second here last year, and his form has been improving.

Kurt Kitayama $7,200 won here last year and has the ideal game to compete at Bay Hill: a strong off-the-tee and approach game. He has to be the lowest-priced return winner for a long while.

Lower-priced options to consider

Austin Eckroat $6,900

Emiliano Grillo $6,900 See above.

Erik van Rooyen $6,600

Min Woo Lee $6,600

One and Done

Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. A spreadsheet tracking who we have used can be found here.

Standings

Hugh Kellenberger: $2,364,690.80Dennis Esser: $1,366,767

Brody Miller: $785,757.83

Hugh Kellenberger: Sam Burns must be respected every time he enters the state of Florida, and after a 2023 season that did not meet expectations, he has rebounded so far this year with four top-10 finishes, including a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open.

Dennis Esser: Russell Henley teased me a bit by going low on Saturday and being unable to keep up that momentum through a stop-and-start finish on Sunday into Monday morning. With this being a signature event week, I need a high finish to catch up to Hugh. I’m taking Rory McIlroy here.  I wanted to save him for a major with the way he is driving the ball this year, but Brody took Cam Young so I’m going to roll with McIlroy and hope his driver can deliver another win at Bay Hill.

Brody Miller: Cameron Young. He’s playing fantastic golf right now and appears to be returning to the 2022 version of himself that seemed like a Ryder Cup guarantee. He’s an elite tee-to-green player, which is crucial at Bay Hill, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s been top-15 in his two starts here. Maybe he finally earns his first career win.