Phillies-Padres prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 4

The Philadelphia Phillies (75-61) take on the San Diego Padres (65-73) in the first game of a three-game series on Monday, September 4. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Petco Park. Taijuan Walker (14-5, 4.05) will take the mound for the Phillies, and Rich Hill (7-13, 5.26 ERA) will pitch for the Padres.

Philly enters as -112 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with San Diego coming in at -108. The run total is set at 9.

Phillies-Padres picks: Monday, September 4

Injury report

Phillies

N/A

Padres

Day to day: C Luis Campusano (groin)
Out: Out: SP Yu Darvish (elbow), SP Joe Musgrove (shoulder), SP Drew Pomeranz (elbow), 1B Jake Cronenworth (wrist), RP Alek Jacob (elbow), 1B Ji-Man Choi (rib)

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker vs. Rich Hill

Walker wrapped up August with an ERA of 4.76 for the month over 22.2 innings pitched. In his most recent start, he let up eight hits and three runs in 5.2 innings against the Angels. In his latest road start, he allowed two earned runs in 6.2 innings against the Marlins. Earlier this season, he faced the Padres and allowed one earned run in five innings, striking out three batters and walking another three.

Hill finished August with a disastrous 8.50 ERA for the month, his first with the Padres. His latest start saw him concede three runs in four innings against the Cardinals. He faced the Phillies earlier this season when he was still a Pirate and lasted five innings on the mound, letting up five hits and two earned runs while recording seven strikeouts.

Over/Under pick

The Phillies will be able to run up the score here. They rank ninth in runs per game in MLB and Hill has an ERA over 8.00 since he joined the Padres. San Diego should be able to get a few runs off as well after their big wins against the Giants. The over is a solid bet here — Walker has been good, but not great, for the Phillies, and will not hold the Padres completely off the scoreboard.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

The Phillies lost two of three to the Brewers in their latest series, and the Padres won three of four against the Giants. Hill will not be able to contain this Phillies lineup after the month he’s had with the Padres. With Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and Trea Turner leading a lineup that ranks ninth in runs per game, I’m all in on the Phillies here.