Braves-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 11

It’s a 2022 NLDS rematch — and a potential 2023 NLDS preview — as the newly-crowned NL East champion Atlanta Braves (93-49) roll into Philadelphia to take on a Phillies (78-64) team looking to maintain its grip on the top NL Wild Card spot. This four-game series will kick off with a doubleheader on Monday, with first pitch of game one set to get underway at 1:05 p.m. ET. Charlie Morton (14-11, 3.32 ERA) will get the ball for Atlanta in that one, while Philly counters with righty Taijuan Walker (15-5, 4.15).

The Braves enter as -148 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Phillies at +124. The run total is set at 10.

Braves-Phillies picks: Monday, September 11

Injury report

Braves

Day to day: SP Kyle Wright (shoulder)
Out: SP Michael Soroka (forearm), RP Collin McHugh (shoulder), SP/RP Yonny Chirinos (elbow), OF Ehire Adrianza (shoulder), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin)

Phillies

N/A

Starting pitchers

Charlie Morton vs. Taijuan Walker

Morton was absolutely sensational in the month of August (1.91 ERA, 37 Ks in 28.2 innings), but the veteran wasn’t quite as sharp in his first start of September, giving up two runs on six hits and three walks over just four innings of work in a loss to the Dodgers a week ago. That shaky command — he’s walked at least three batters in six of his last nine starts — can make for the occasional bumpy start, but when he’s near the strike zone Morton is still awfully tough to hit. He’s leaning on his curveball more than ever, throwing it nearly 50% of the time, and it’s not hard to see why with a 41.2% K rate and .181 batting average against. His one prior start against Philly this season was a mixed bag, as he gave up just two runs and struck out nine over 5.1 innings but allowed seven hits and four walks.

Walker’s been stuck in a bit of a rut recently: The righty has allowed three or four runs while going between five and six innings in each of his last four outings, including allowing four in five frames against the Padres last week. When he’s at his best, Walker uses a dynamite splitter to generate lots of swings and misses and lots of ground balls. That splitter can come and go, though, and it’s been weeks since it really showed up for him. Without that pitch leading his arsenal, he’s going to struggle to really shut down opposing offenses.

Over/Under pick

Walker isn’t anywhere near the top of his game right now, struggling despite a pretty easy recent schedule (he’s had matchups against the Royals, Twins, Giants, Angels and a San Diego team that’s been pretty bad against righties). That doesn’t bode well as the competition ratchets way up on Monday, although the Braves might not run out their A lineup in game one of a doubleheader the day after clinching a playoff spot. Still, Atlanta is looking to shut the door on the NL East this week, and they’ve hit this total in five of their last six games. If Philly can get to even three or four runs this afternoon, we should clear the over here.

Pick: Over 10

Moneyline pick

Atlanta has the more trustworthy starting pitcher and the better, deeper lineup, while Philly is 4-6 in its last 10 games and just lost a dispiriting series to the Marlins at home over the weekend. Walker isn’t the guy you want on the mound to try and pull this upset.