Phillies-Cardinals prediction: Picks, odds on Sunday, September 17

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-67) rode a great Ranger Suarez start to a second straight win over the St. Louis Cardinals (65-83) on Saturday as they look to maintain their hold on the top NL Wild Card spot. Philly will be gunning for a sweep in the finale on Sunday afternoon, with first pitch from Busch Stadium set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Taijuan Walker (15-5, 4.30 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while St. Louis counters with Dakota Hudson (6-2, 5.10).

The Phillies enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Cardinals at +110. The run total is set at 9.

Phillies-Cardinals picks: Sunday, September 17

Injury report

Phillies

Out: 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee)

Cardinals

Out: OF Dylan Carlson (ankle), INF Brendan Donovan (elbow), 2B Nolan Gorman (hamstring), RP JoJo Romero (knee), SP Steven Matz (lat), RP Guillermo Zuniga (forearm)

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker vs. Dakota Hudson

It’s been a long, slow slide for Walker in the second half; after a 1.50 ERA in June and a 3.86 mark in July, the righty slumped to a 4.76 mark in August. Things have gotten even worse so far in September, as he gave up four runs on five hits in five innings to the Padres to open the month and six runs on six hits in 5.1 innings against the Braves earlier this week. His velocity is back down in the low 90s, his splitter isn’t generating nearly as many outs as it was earlier in the year and it’s tough to imagine Walker having success unless both of those things change.

Hudson has struggled mightily of late, allowing 12 runs over his last two starts — including seven on eight hits and three walks in 4.1 innings in a nightmare of an outing against the Orioles in which he only tallied three swinging strikes. The righty ranks in the bottom 10 percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate; he doesn’t miss bats hardly ever, and while he keeps the ball on the ground with his sinker/slider approach, it’s a risky game to play that involves hoping a lot of hard contact finds its way into gloves.

Over/Under pick

These are two pitchers who are struggling mightily — one of whom (Hudson) who is really only in a big-league rotation because the Cardinals stripped their pitching staff down to the studs at the trade deadline. We’ve seen nine and seven runs over the first two games of this series, but I’m backing the over here today; Walker has been hit awfully hard of late, while several Phillies (especially Bryce Harper, who’s 6-for-7 lifetime) have hit Hudson hard in their careers.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

Walker has been bad, but he’s been better than Hudson, and he has the deeper and more consistent offense backing him. Philly needs to keep stacking wins to avoid getting drawn into the NL Wild Card morass, and I think they finish off the sweep on Sunday against an overmatched starting pitcher.