Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction & Best Bets for NLCS Game 3-10/19/2023
When you’re hot, you’re hot, and right now, the Philadelphia Phillies are seemingly hotter than the sun. Will that continue with the NLCS now shifting to Arizona, or will the Diamondbacks be able to make a series out of it? Today’s Game 3 at Chase Field (5:07 pm ET, TBS) is a make-or-break game for the D-backs.
In both games in Philadelphia, the Phillies jumped out on top in the opening inning, and the Diamondbacks were unable to emerge from the early hole.
In Game 1, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper hit solo home runs off of Zac Gallen to stake the Phils to a 2-0 lead on the way to a 5-3 win.
Then in Game 2, Trea Turner took Merrill Kelly deep to establish an early advantage, and Philadelphia went on to win 10-0 behind a two-homer game by Schwarber and six shutout innings by Aaron Nola.
As it stands, the Diamondbacks appear to be up against it, to put it mildly. At BetOnline, the sweep (+250) is now the most likely outcome, with a 4-1 series win priced at +260.
Will Arizona rule out the former outcome? They haven’t spent much time at home in the playoffs, but a little home cooking might be what they need.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Odds
Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies -125
- Arizona Diamondbacks +105
Over/Under
- Over 9 (-115)
- Under 9 (-105)
Run Line
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+120)
- Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)
Can the Phillies Be Stopped?
With how things have gone in the postseason over the last two seasons, there doesn’t appear to be much hope for the Diamondbacks.
In the wild-card round, NLDS, and NLCS, the Phillies are now 16-3 since the start of last year’s playoffs. That is mostly on the balance of an 11-0 home record, but they have also picked up some valuable road wins.
In the regular season, the Phillies (41-40) were one of six NL teams with a winning road record, with the Diamondbacks, also owning a 41-40 record, in that bunch as well. Philadelphia and Arizona were tied with the Detroit Tigers for the 10th-best road record across the league, with only the Braves, Dodgers, Reds, and Brewers being superior in the NL.
By comparison, while the Diamondbacks had a winning home record, they were tied with the New York Mets for the ninth-best home record in the NL and were middle of the road overall.
Ultimately, all of that is really neither here nor there when it comes to the postseason, especially because the Diamondbacks have been at home for all of one of seven games thus far. But it is worth noting if you are hoping that the Diamondbacks will get a major bounce from being back at home.
They certainly should, because postseason baseball has not been a frequent sight at Chase Field. But they are up against a team that appears to be operating with stratospheric confidence.
How do you combat that? Not falling behind early would certainly help. In this year’s playoffs, the Phillies are 5-1 when they have scored first, and dating back to last year, they are 12-3 when scoring first.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Phillies to win
Best Bets: Phillies ML (-125 at Bovada) & Phillies -1.5 (+120 at Bovada)
Of Philadelphia’s 18 postseason wins (in 25 games) over the last two years, 15 (83.3%) have come by multiple runs, including all seven thus far in this year’s playoffs.
Where to Bet on Phillies vs Diamondbacks and the MLB Playoffs
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