Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds
On Thursday, the National League Championship Series swings to the West Coast for Game 3 between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks. Philadelphia won each of the first two games on their home field and will be seeking a commanding 3-0 series lead this evening. The first pitch is scheduled for 5:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -130 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 9.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez gets the ball for Philadelphia in Game 3
Ranger Suarez was magnificent for the Phillies during the Division Series, holding the Atlanta Braves to one run across 8.2 innings of work, spanning two starts. On Thursday, Suarez gets an even more favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks, which ranked 21st in OPS and 25th in ISO against left-handed pitching during the regular season.
Suarez is far from an elite option on the mound, but he finished the regular season ranked in the 71st percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 79th percentile in ground ball rate. His ability to limit quality contact gives him a high floor each time he takes the mound, as long as he avoids dishing out free passes.
Suarez has issued only one walk out of the 31 batters he has faced so far during these playoffs. He projects well in Game 3, though is likely to be on a relatively short leash once again with a rested Philadelphia relief corps behind him.
Trea Turner and Bryce Harper lead an electric Phillies offense
Understandably, Bryce Harper gets the majority of the media attention when Philadelphia’s offense is playing well. However, he is only one of six players in the Phillies lineup this October with an .848 OPS or better. Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber have combined for 18 home runs in only 167 at-bats this postseason.
Overall, the Phillies have a .941 OPS as a team in eight games during October, which is substantially better than any other offense. Philadelphia also has 10 stolen bases in those eight games, which is three more than any other team.
This group possesses a rare combination of power, speed, and camaraderie – do not expect them to slow down any time soon.
Philadelphia’s bullpen is as dominant as ever
Aside from an Austin Riley eighth-inning home run in Game 2 of the Wild Card round, Philadelphia’s bullpen has been nearly immaculate to begin October. Heading into the NLCS, Jose Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, Craig Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez, and Matt Strahm had combined for 15.0 scoreless innings in relief during the team’s first six postseason contests. In the first two games of the NLCS, this unit has added another six scoreless frames to the ledger.
On Thursday, Manager Rob Thompson will have all of his high-leverage and middle-relief options available and rested, thanks to both of his starters getting deep into the ballgame in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series. This is the deepest and the most talented relief corps remaining in these playoffs. Runs are going to continue to be hard to come by for Arizona in the latter frames of games.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt to start Game 3 for Arizona
In Game 3, Arizona will hand the ball to Brandon Pfaadt, who has been a mixed bag so far in these playoffs. In his lone start during the Wild Card round, Pfaadt was chased after only 2.2 innings after allowing three earned runs on seven hits. He was much better in the Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, delivering 4.1 innings of scoreless baseball. However, a quick hook after only throwing 42 pitches should tell bettors all they need to know about Manager Torey Lovullo’s trust in him.
During the regular season, Pfaadt ranked in the 31st percentile in xERA, 33rd percentile in xBA, 20th percentile in average exit velocity, 3rd percentile in barrel rate, 16th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and the 8th percentile in ground ball rate. His inability to generate weak contact on a consistent basis, coupled with his lack of overpowering stuff makes him a poor candidate to start a postseason game.
Arizona’s season is essentially on the line tonight, meaning that his leash is likely to be extremely short if he struggles early.
Arizona’s offense is nowhere to be found
In our Game 1 preview, we said that “Unquestionably, the Diamondbacks have the worst offense remaining in the playoffs.” We doubled down on that statement ahead of Game 2, and we are tripling-down on that statement ahead of Game 3.
OPS and 27th in ISO against left-handed pitching. More concerning for the Diamondbacks has been their lack of aggressiveness on the basepaths during the first two games of the NLCS. The Diamondbacks are not going to out-hit the Phillies, which makes it important to find creative ways to plate runs in this series. If Arizona is not going to push the envelope on the bases, it is difficult to see them having much, if any, success at the plate before they get sent home.
Arizona has scored only three runs in 18 innings to begin the NLCS. Life is not going to get any easier for this group against a surging Ranger Suarez, who will be followed by a dominant Philadelphia bullpen.
All-hands on deck for Game 3
Brandon Pfaadt is not someone who promises to give the Diamondbacks much length on Thursday, which means we should expect a heavy dose of the Arizona bullpen in Game 3. During the month of September, Arizona’s arm barn generated only a 22.3% strikeout rate.
Prior to the season, we mentioned that their inability to get swings and misses could be a tremendous problem against a Philadelphia lineup that has plenty of power from top-to-bottom. In Game 2, Arizona’s bullpen allowed six earned runs on eight hits across 2.1 innings of work.
Manager Torey Lovullo has all of his high-leverage options available for Game 3, so do not be surprised if he goes to them much earlier than anticipated, perhaps avoiding his less reliable middle-relief options altogether.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies – Picks & Predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies are the most complete baseball team remaining in the postseason. They hit the ball well, are aggressive on the basepaths, have high-quality starting pitching, plenty of depth in the bullpen, and their defense has been better than many expected. The Arizona Diamondbacks were undeserving of a playoff spot, but the expanded format and a favorable opening-round matchup presented a pathway to the NLCS, which they earned and of which they took advantage. The reality is simply that the Diamondbacks do not deserve to be on the same baseball field as the Phillies in October. This series could be over very quickly.
PICK: Phillies Moneyline (-130, Fanatics Sportsbook)
