Phillies vs. Marlins prediction: MLB picks, odds, best bets
Zack Wheeler gets stronger as the season progresses.
His career ERA in April is 4.31, but 2.59 in September.
The Phillies righty is also due for regular positive regression.
Despite an ERA of 4.03, his expected ERA sits in the low 3.00s, and his FIP is in the high 2.00s.
Wheeler has elite command and shows a consistent ability to force weak contact.
He’s a slow starter, but expect him to shine in the second half of the MLB season.
Phillies vs. Marlins pick
(6:40 p.m. Eastern)
I don’t see Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara turning his disastrous season around.
He also has struggled against the Phillies, recently getting tagged for nine earned across four innings in an early-April start.
Also, I’m looking to fade the Marlins more generally.
Entering Thursday, the Fish were 14 games over .500 with a negative run differential with an absurd 21-5 record in one-run games.
I’m unsure when or if the regression will come, but I must keep betting it will.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are surging, having won 21 of 30 entering Thursday as the rotation rounds into form.
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The bullpen looks excellent following Jose Alvarado’s return.
The lineup has shown more consistency behind Nick Castellanos’ hot streak.
I expect Wheeler and the Phillies to force some negative regression upon Alcantara and the Marlins on Friday.
