Marlins-Phillies Wild Card Game 1 preview: Pitching matchups, x-factor, odds, analysis

It’s an NL East showdown. No matter what happens, the loser of this series can still point at the Mets and laugh. Maybe that’s all that matters.

While the balanced schedule prevented these teams from seeing each other several times every month, they still played 13 games this season. The Marlins won 7 of the 13 games, but the Phillies outscored them, which seems about right.

The Marlins will be without two of their most talented and electric pitchers, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez, while the Phillies will be relatively healthy. The Marlins have three batters with 20 homers or more, while the Phillies have six. The Marlins were named after a fish that can stab you in the eyeball. The Phillies were named by a drunk sportswriter who couldn’t be bothered to say or type “adelphia.”

They’re more evenly matched than the records suggest.

NL Wild Card Game 1: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Start time: 8:08 p.m. ET on ESPN

Pitching matchup:Jesús Luzardo vs. Zack Wheeler

Game 1 pitching matchup

Phillies: RHP Zack Wheeler
2023 stats: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 192 innings, 212 strikeouts, 1.08 WHIP

One of the few horses left in the postseason, Wheeler is the kind of pitcher who gives his bullpen a rest. He pitches into the sixth inning almost every time, and he’ll get into the seventh more often than his peers. If the Phillies are in the NLDS, NLCS or World Series, it’s probably because Wheeler is doing good things.

Marlins: LHP Jesús Luzardo
2023 stats: 10-9, 3.63 ERA, 178 innings, 208 strikeouts, 1.22 WHIP

Luzardo is on the Marlins because he was traded by the Oakland A’s back when they were trying, if you can imagine such a thing. He’s blossomed into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, with electric stuff and newfound command and control. The Marlins would have been more comfortable if they could have used the 2022 Cy Young winner to kick off Game 1, but Luzardo is hardly a contingency plan.

Game 1 X-factor

Kyle Schwarber vs. a left-handed starter

Against right-handers, Schwarber was his purest self, hitting .201/.357/.497, with 32 homers in 467 plate appearances.

Against left-handers, Schwarber was better than you might expect. He was under the Mendoza Line against lefties this season, and he’s been close to it throughout his career, but he still managed 15 homers and a .758 OPS against them this year. He’s a player who should be platooned if you have a better option, but he’s far from a MUST PLATOON sinkhole. How he does against Luzardo might decide Game 1, which means this is the matchup that could decide the series.

Notable Quotable

Ah. Well, the thing about this is …

(Top photo of Schwarber: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)