NL Cy Young Future Odds

Sandy Alcantara is the favorite to repeat, but there are other contenders who offer better value.

The reigning NL Cy Young, Sandy Alcantara, is the favorite at +475 to repeat in 2023 at SI Sportsbook.

Alcantara impressed last season, pitching to a sparkling 2.28 ERA (fifth) across an MLB-leading 228⅔ innings pitched. The Marlins ace is not a high strikeout guy, but he has an impressive five-pitch arsenal. It’s a joy to watch him pitch. There’s no reason to think he can’t repeat the volume from 2022, but with a low K-rate (only 8.15 per nine innings) and new bans on the shift, Alcantara is due for some regression. As much as I Iike Alcantara, I want better odds for him to go back-to-back.

Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes comes in with the next best odds at +500. Burnes has now maintained a sub-three ERA for two consecutive seasons. He’s one season removed from his own Cy Young award, and 5-to-1 is decent value. Last year, his strikeout rate was down and his home runs allowed were up, but he’s only 28 years old this year, and I expect Burnes to remain in contention.

The reigning AL Cy Young winner, Justin Verlander (+650), will have an advantage as he moves to the NL with the Mets. National League batters will have not had much experience vs. the 40-year-old veteran. Verlander could easily defy father time and take home his fourth Cy Young.

If Verlander can do it, maybe I like Max Scherzer (+700) even more. Why? Competition can be a beautiful thing. It’s no secret these two are not fond of eachother, and I have a feeling they will make each other even better. Mad Max will also be looking to earn his fourth award, and he has the superior strikeout ability to Verlnader. Scherzer pitched to a 2.29 ERA across 145⅓ innings last year. If he can remain healthy, Scherzer is as good a bet as any.

I like the value for Zack Wheeler at +1600. Wheeler got off to a slow start with a forearm injury in 2022, and that looks to have suppressed his value. After he returned, Wheeler pitched 153 innings to the tune of a 2.82 ERA while striking out 10 batters per nine innings.

Max Fried (+1200) is a very similar pitcher to Julio Urias (+2000). Neither lefty is a high strikeout pitcher, but both are excellent at limiting hard contact, and both should log plenty of wins and be able to maintain a low ERA.

Brandon Woodruff(+2000) and Yu Darvish (+2200) also look attractive.

Here are the current odds at SI Sportsbook:

Sandy Alcantara +475

Corbin Burnes +500

Justin Verlander +600

Max Scherzer +750

Spencer Strider +1100

Aaron Nola +1200

Max Fried +1200

Zac Gallen +1600

Zack Wheeler +1600

Julio Urias +2000

Joe Musgrove +2000

Brandon Woodruff +2000

Yu Darvish +2200

Logan Webb +3000