Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Washington Nationals (49-63) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (61-51) in NL East play, at 6:40 PM ET on Monday.

The Nationals are an underdog (+187 moneyline odds) when they square off against the Phillies (-226). The matchup has an over/under of 10 total runs.

The betting insights in the article below reference odds valid as of August 7, 2023 at 3:20 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Phillies vs Nationals Betting Lines

Phillies Betting Insights

• The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 72 times this season and won 42, or 58.3%, of those games.
• Philadelphia is 5-2 this season when entering a game favored by -226 or more on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 69.3% chance to win.
• Philadelphia and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 48 of 112 opportunities.
• The Phillies are 49-63-0 against the spread in their 112 chances this season.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Nationals Betting Insights

• The Nationals have been underdogs in 104 games this season and have come away with the win 44 times (42.3%) in those contests.
• This season, Washington has come away with a win 11 times in 24 chances when named as an underdog of at least +187 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 34.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Contests with Washington has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 52 of 111 chances this season.
• The Nationals are 61-50-0 against the spread in their 111 games that had a posted line this season.

Nationals Last 10 Games Trend

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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Ranger Suarez

• Suarez and his team have a record of 9-6-0 against the spread when he starts.
• The left-hander gave up one earned run in 6 1/3 innings pitched on Tuesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Miami Marlins.
• Suarez will look to finish five or more innings for the 14th start in a row.
• He has made 15 appearances and finished one of them without allowing an earned run.
• Suarez’s team has been victorious in 57.1% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 4-3.
• In games Suarez has started, his team is 9-6.
• In games Suarez has started this season, the teams are 7-6-2 at hitting the over.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Nationals Probable Pitcher – Trevor Williams

• Williams (5-6 with a 4.72 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 108 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Nationals, his 23rd of the season.
• The righty’s most recent appearance came on Sunday, July 30 against the New York Mets, when he went four innings, surrendering five earned runs while giving up seven hits.
• Williams has pitched five or more innings in a game 16 times this year entering this outing.
• In three of his appearances this season he has not allow an earned run.
• The Nationals have been the underdog on the moneyline in 20 of Williams’ starts this season, and they went 9-11 in those games.
• Williams’ team has an 11-11 record in his starts this season.
• Williams’ starts hit the over on the run total eight times in 21 games with a set total this season.

Nationals Relief Pitchers

Phillies Hitting Trends

• The Phillies have put up two or more homers in 32 games this season, and are 24-8 in those contests.
• Philadelphia is 20-8 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
• The club is 46-27 in the games this season it has notched at least eight hits.
• Philadelphia has a 41-9 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
• The Phillies are 25-12 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Nationals Hitting Trends

• They are 17-9 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
• Washington has gone 14-4 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
• They have won 39 of the 74 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
• Washington has won 35 of its 47 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
• They have won 12 of their 22 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-226)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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