Pirates-Cubs prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, September 19

The Chicago Cubs (78-72) look to snap a five-game losing streak and stay afloat in the crowded NL Wild Card race as they kick off a crucial three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates (70-80) on Tuesday night. First pitch from Wrigley Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Bailey Falter (2-8, 4.40 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while the Cubs turn to Javier Assad (3-3, 3.10).

Chicago is in a tailspin right now, one that might cost it a playoff spot. They were swept this weekend in Arizona, making it eight losses in their last 10 games, and they’re now just a half-game up on the Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. They’ll be looking to make up ground against a friendly schedule this week, with three games against the Pirates followed by three against the Rockies over the weekend.

The Cubs enter as -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Pittsburgh at +130. The run total is set at 9.

Pirates-Cubs picks: Tuesday, September 19

Injury report

Pirates

Out: SS Oneil Cruz (leg), OF Andrew McCutchen (Achilles), INF Tucupita Marcano (knee), RP Angel Perdomo (elbow)

Cubs

Day to day: RP Brandon Hughes (knee)
Out: 1B/3B Jeimer Candelario (back), RP Adbert Alzolay (forearm), RP Michael Fulmer (forearm)

Starting pitchers

Bailey Falter vs. Javier Assad

After a bumpy start to his Pirates career — he posted a 4.88 ERA across five appearances (four starts) in August — Falter has hit his stride in September, with just six hits and two runs allowed over 13.1 innings of work. He’s coming off of probably his best start of the season, allowing one run on four hits with four Ks over six innings in a win over the Nationals last week. Falter is in many ways the prototypical craft lefty, with a fastball that sits around 90 mph and relying on pitch separation and command of his changeup and slider to have success. That formula has worked fairly well of late, but this Chicago lineup will probably be his stiffest test.

A god-send to a beleaguered Cubs rotation during the month of August, Assad’s September has gotten off to a rockier start, with seven runs and 12 hits allowed across 8.2 innings. (Of course, the most recent of those outings came at Coors Field, so we’re inclined to give him a pass for that one.) Prior to this rough patch, the righty had notched four quality starts in five outings, including seven innings of one-run ball against these same Pirates back in late August. If he gets his cutter back working again, he should get back on track.

Over/Under pick

The Cubs have crushed lefties so far this month, slashing .329/.363/.523 since September 1. In a must-win spot — back at home, where they’ve been a far better team — I expect them to come out swinging and bag some early runs against Falter. If the Pirates can contribute even a little bit to this total (not out of the question, given Assad’s recent struggles), I think the over will cash here as Chicago’s lineup gets back on track.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

If Chicago doesn’t get a win here, the alarm bells will really start ringing. The Cubs are 41-34 at home this year, and facing a Pittsburgh team that doesn’t have a ton to play for — and is just 5-5 in their last 10 games — I think the North Siders get it done.