Diamondbacks-Cubs prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, September 7

Now a half-game back of the Marlins for the third and final Wild Card spot, the Arizona Diamondbacks (72-68) head east to kick off a four-game set with the streaking Chicago Cubs (76-64) in a series that could go a long way to sorting out the National League playoff picture. First pitch of Thursday’s opener from Wrigley Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Ryne Nelson (6-7, 5.47 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while Javier Assad (3-2, 2.69) goes for the Cubs.

Chicago enters as -166 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the D-backs at +140. The run total is set at 8.5.

Diamondbacks-Cubs picks: Thursday, September 7

Injury report

Diamondbacks

Day to day: OF Corbin Carroll (wrist)
Out: SP Tommy Henry (elbow), SP/RP Drey Jameson (elbow), RP Mark Melancon (shoulder)

Cubs

Out: SP Marcus Stroman (ribs), RP Michael Fulmer (forearm), RP Brandon Hughes (knee), RP Brad Boxberger (forearm)

Starting pitchers

Ryne Nelson vs. Javier Assad

This will be Nelson’s return to the Majors, after consecutive six-run blowups to start August earned him a demotion down to Triple-A to figure some things out. The righty posted a 3.74 ERA over four outings in the Minors, allegedly refining his slider — which will be necessary if he’s going to turn things around in the Show, as Nelson throws his four-seam fastball over 50% of the time and has struggled all year to find a reliable secondary option.

Assad has been a god-send since being thrust into the Cubs rotation due to Marcus Stroman’s injury. The righty hasn’t just been serviceable; he’s been great, with two or fewer earned runs allowed in each of his six starts — including eight sensational shutout innings in a win over the Reds last weekend. Assad is almost certainly due for at least a little regression, but it’s hard to bet against him right now, as his sinker/cutter combo is forcing a ton of weak contact (83rd percentile in average exit velocity, 76th in ground-ball rate).

Over/Under pick

With 39 runs over their last four games, it’s safe to say this Cubs lineup is rounding back into form at the right time — which is bad news for Nelson as he attempts to get his feet under him in the Majors after several weeks away. Maybe his new arsenal works for him, but we haven’t seen him find consistent success against big-league lineups, and I think Chicago will do most of the work to help us hit this over on Thursday.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

As long as Assad keeps rolling, so will Chicago. The Cubs have the advantage on the mound and the deeper lineup at the plate, and they need every win they can get as they try to track down the Brewers in the NL Central.