Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction, Picks, Odds

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09 September 2023

Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction, Picks, Odds

Merrill Kelly is quietly having another strong season, and has been consistent even when his numbers aren't leaping off the page. Our MLB picks think this creates value for the Diamondbacks starter against the Cubs today.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The third installment of this four-game series gets underway on Saturday with the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs hosting the NL West’s Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona won both of the first two meetings by a combined score of 7-2.

Will the Diamondbacks take care of business once again, or can the Cubs enact their revenge at Wrigley Field? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs on Saturday, September 9.

Diamondbacks vs Cubs odds

Diamondbacks vs Cubs predictions

Right-hander Merrill Kelly takes the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks and should be a good candidate to back. Through 25 starts this season, Kelly is 11-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Not only has the right-hander been efficient all season, but he has been particularly proficient in the strikeout department. Currently, Kelly ranks in the 72nd percentile in K% and 90th percentile in chase%, which is where we’re going to back him in this contest.

You can find his strikeout prop as low as 4.5 at DraftKings, a number he has surpassed in 17 of his past 23 starts. This strikeout success is likely to continue against the Chicago Cubs, a team against whom Kelly is 2-1 in his career through four starts.

He recorded five or more strikeouts in three of those four outings. While the Cubs’ lineup has done a good job keeping them in the playoff race, they’re relatively average at avoiding strikeouts, as they rank 14th in K% when facing right-handed pitching.

There are multiple guys in this lineup that are strikeout-prone and should help Kelly go Over his total, including Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Dansby Swanson, all of whom possess a K% north of 22% this year. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Kelly, a pitcher whom this lineup possesses a fade-worthy 23.2 K% and 25 whiff% against through 69 career plate appearances.

We just saw Zac Gallen throw a strikeout per inning in yesterday’s 1-0 win over Chicago, and we should expect Kelly to go at least five innings and accomplish the same.

My best bet: Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 strikeouts (-165)

Diamondbacks vs Cubs same-game parlay

Kelly 5+ Strikeouts (-180)
Under 7.5 (-180)
Diamondbacks ML (+122)

We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.

While Kelly is likely to take care of business once again, Arizona’s lineup is going to have its hands full against left-hander Justin Steele. It’s been a career year for Steele, who is 16-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 26 starts.

With that said, his 3.39 xERA and .242 xBA suggests that regression is looming for the NL Cy Young candidate. This slight regression could come to fruition against the DBacks, a team that ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS.

Even with slight regression, Steele is still unlikely to implode, so we could see Arizona take care of business in a low-scoring affair similar to Friday’s outing.

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Diamondbacks vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Cubs opened as –142 favorites and have since been bet up to -144. This miniscule line movement should not be too concerning, and completely makes sense given how profitable Steele has been for his backers on the moneyline this season.

That brings us to the total, which opened at 7.5 and currently remains at that number. With two strong pitchers slated to take the mound and the recency bias of Friday’s pitching duel, I would be shocked if the market moves the number any higher than 7.5.

There have been seven or fewer total runs scored in three of Arizona’s past five games and in six of Chicago’s past 11.

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Trend to know

Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in 17 of his past 23 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs

Diamondbacks vs Cubs game info

Starting pitchers

Merrill Kelly (11-6, 3.22 ERA): It’s been another strong campaign for Kelly, who is on pace to finish with a sub-3.50 ERA for the third time over the past four seasons. The right-hander's stats are also slightly weighed down by a terrible performance against the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers, a game in which he surrendered seven runs on 12 hits through five innings pitched. Outside of that outing, Kelly hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since the end of July.

Justin Steele (16-3, 2.55 ERA): Steele boasts some stellar surface-level stats, but his 3.39 xERA suggests that regression is looming as the campaign comes to an end. This expected regression could arrive on Saturday against a competent and under-discussed Arizona lineup.