Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators Prediction, Preview, and Odds

The Penguins are coming off a very entertaining win on Monday night and travel to Ottawa to face off against the Senators for the first of three matchups this season against the Sens. The Senators look to get out of a bit of a slump at home when the puck drops at 7pm EST at Canadian Tire Centre for this Eastern Conference matchup.

Penguins look to win again on the road after electric overtime winner

The Penguins are having a pretty good season with a 22-15-6 record but have been in a bit of a slump lately with just three wins in their last eleven games. They are coming off a 4-3 overtime win on Monday night at home against the Ducks, scoring the tying goal with just 25 seconds left in regulation and then winning on a Jake Guentzel goal just 33 seconds into overtime in a very entertaining 3-on-3. Pittsburgh outshot Anaheim 45-29 and outplayed them by a huge margin, by an expected goal rate of 6.02-3.41.

"JAKE GUENTZEL HAS JUST BROUGHT THE HOUSE DOWN! PENGUINS WIN IN OVERTIME!" pic.twitter.com/lnqt6MqsVS

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) January 17, 2023

IT'S A PENGUINS OVERTIME VICTORY! �� pic.twitter.com/fwEqCdsKvB

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) January 17, 2023

Pittsburgh’s offense has been pretty good this season, averaging 3.21 goals per game, the 14th most in the NHL, on an average of 32.4 shots per game. They have generated the eighth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.53) and the second-most high-danger shots. The Pens’ power play has scored on 20.3% of their chances. Sidney Crosby continues to lead the Penguins in scoring with 49 points, 21 goals, and 28 assists this season.

The Penguins have allowed an average of 3.02 goals per game on an average of 33.4 shots per game. They’ve given up the 14th fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.05) and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots. The Pens’ penalty kill has been very good, killing off penalties at an 83.2% rate, the fourth-best in the NHL. Tristan Jarry is projected to make his return from injury and get his first start for the Penguins since December 30th tonight. Jarry has a 15-5-4 record, a 2.75 GAA, a .918 save percentage, and a shutout this season.

Sens look to bounce back after loss in St. Louis

The Senators haven’t been great this season, coming into tonight’s game with a 19-21-3 record on the season. They’re in a slump, just getting one win in their last five games. On Monday night they were in St. Louis and fell 2-1 to the Blues, despite outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 2.19-1.6 in a boring game and outshooting St. Louis 33-20.

A hard fight until the end, just not our night. Back in action Wednesday at @CdnTireCtr. pic.twitter.com/We1rFOonp2

— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) January 17, 2023

The Sens have struggled offensively this season, scoring just the eighth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.91 per game on an average of 33.3 shots per game. They’ve underachieved as they’ve generated the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.57) and the ninth-most high-danger shots. Ottawa’s power play has been pretty good this season, scoring at a 26.4% rate, the sixth-most in the NHL. Captain Brady Tkachuk (42 points, 27 assists) and Tim Stutzle (19 goals) are the scoring leaders this season for the Senators.

Ottawa has struggled a bit defensively, allowing an average of 3.23 goals per game, the 14th most in the NHL, on an average of 31.8 shots per game. They’re 21st in expected goals against per 60 minutes (3.25) and have allowed the sixth-most high-danger shots. The Senators’ penalty kill has been good, ranking eighth-best in the NHL at 82.2%. Cam Talbot’s projected to start tonight for the Sens. Talbot has a 10-12-1 record this season with a 2.86 GAA, a .906 save percentage, and a shutout.

Best Bets

Full-Game Side Bet

Rating:

This should be a fun matchup but I give the Penguins a pretty significant edge to get a win here, as they’re the better team on both ends of the ice. Pittsburgh’s offense has been fantastic, generating the eighth most expected goals in the NHL this season and the second most high-danger shots. They should be able to score pretty easily on Cam Talbot and the Sens defense, who have given up plenty of scoring chances to their opponents this season. 

Take the Penguins here to get a win on the road!

Prediction: Penguins ML (-120)

Full-Game Total Pick

Rating:

I like the over in this game, expecting both teams to be able to score. The Penguins offense has been fantastic this season and has been able to generate plenty of scoring chances with their veteran-led team being able to capitalize on those chances. The Senators’ defense has given up plenty of opportunities, which the Pens should jump on. At times this season Ottawa’s offense has looked great too, and even though they’re not scoring, they have generated a ton of high-danger shots and expected goals through their scoring chances. With Tristan Jarry getting his first start in three weeks in his return from injury, I expect him to give up a decent amount of goals to the Sens.

Take the over here and expect plenty of goals!