Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Preview, and Odds
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Saturday football returns to the NFL with an AFC matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, 7-6 ATS) and the Indianapolis Colts (7-6, 8-5 ATS). These teams would grab the last two Wildcard spots if the season ended today, so this head-to-head matchup will be vital for tiebreakers. The Steelers are coming off a Thursday night loss to the Patriots, going down 21-18 as 5.5-point home favorites. The Colts just got blown out by Cincinnati, going down 34-14 as just 2.5-point road dogs. The Colts are currently listed as 1.5-point favorites. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 EST from Lucas Oil Stadium and can be found on the NFL Network.
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Tough Stretch for Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are surprisingly alive in the playoff race. They are currently the 6-seed in the AFC but are coming off two ugly losses. The Steelers would be in a much better spot if they simply won the games they were supposed to win, as they lost as favorites in the last two weeks against the Cardinals and the Patriots. Against the Patriots, the Steelers' defense made New England's Bailey Zappe look like a competent quarterback, allowing 240 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Steelers are starting Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, as Kenny Pickett is still out with an ankle injury.
Trubisky has started the past two games, both losses and has averaged 153.5 yards per game with two touchdowns and an interception. Pittsburgh will need to generate more offense, as they are only averaging 14.0 PPG as a team over the past two games with Trubisky. The Steelers have been splitting time in the backfield; Najee Harris is the power back, he adds 53.1 yards per game and four touchdowns, while Jaylen Warren is a speed back adding 47.1 YPG and three touchdowns. Harris is better in short yardage scenarios, while Warren is used much more in the passing game. George Pickens is the top receiver. He gets 59.0 YPG and is the team's best big-play threat as he has 16 receptions of over 20 yards. Diontae Johnson is another option in the passing game with 47.5 YPG. Both Pickens and Johnson have three touchdowns each on the season.
The Steelers rank 27th in the NFL in scoring with 16.2 points per game but are much better on the defensive end where they rank 7th by allowing just 19.2 points per. Linebacker Elandon Roberts leads the team in tackles with 86, while fellow linebacker TJ Watt is second in the league with 14 sacks. CB Levi Wallace and S Damontae Kazee each have two interceptions on the year. They are tied for 2nd in the NFL in turnover differential with 21 takeaways on defense, and only 11 turnovers on offense.
Injury Report:
Out: Kenny Pickett
Probable: WR Diontae Johnson, LB Elandon Roberts, LB Alex Highsmith
Four Game Streak Snapped
Shane Steichen's first season as the Indianapolis Colts will be viewed as a success. He has navigated the Anthony Richardson injury and turned Gardner Minshew into a potential playoff quarterback. The Colts were on a four-game winning streak, and they were less than a field-goal favorite in all four wins. The streak came to an end last week against the Bengals, where Cincinnati won the battle of backup quarterbacks by 20 points. Michael Pittman Jr. had a solid game against Cincy with 95 receiving yards but did not find the endzone.
Gardner Minshew is averaging 194.2 passing yards per game with an 11-8 TD-INT ratio. He is the starter for the rest of the season after the Colts shut down Anthony Richardson. He has been throwing for more yards recently, as he has had at least 240 yards in each of his last three games, including passing for 312 in the win over the Titans. Zach Moss has become the lead back as Jonathan Taylor has been in and out of the lineup for various reasons. Moss averages 62.6 yards per game with five touchdowns on the season. Michael Pittman Jr. is the top receiver, and he only needs 14 yards in this game to surpass 1,000 on the season. Pittman Jr. averages 75.7 YPG with four touchdowns. Josh Downs has developed into the second receiver for the team. He adds another 47.1 YPG and has the most 20+ yard receptions with eight.
The Colts rank 8th in the NFL in scoring with 24.2 points per game, but their defense ranks 29th by allowing 25.4 points per game. Linebacker Zaire Franklin leads the NFL in tackles with 144 on the season, and next up on the Colts is safety Julian Blackmon with just 85. Defensive end Samson Ebukam leads the team with eight sacks, and Blackmon and CB Kenny Moore II each have three interceptions. The Colts have 21 takeaways on defense, with 20 turnovers from their offense on the season.
Injury Report:
Out: QB Anthony Richardson, TE Jelani Woods, RB Jonathan Taylor, OT Braden Smith, LB Segun Olubi.
Probable: DT DeForest Buckner,
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Rating:
This game is another matchup between backup quarterbacks, as the league has seen more of these types of games than they would like. In this scenario, one team is better equipped for success, and that is Indianapolis. Mike Tomlin is a defensive coach. He has no say in the offense, and Pittsburgh has been struggling to generate points regardless of who is in at QB, as the Steelers rank 27th. On the other side of the field, Colts' coach Shane Steichen is an offensive mind, who has turned these Colts into a top-10 scoring offense with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, and Jonathan Taylor out for the majority of the season. The Colts rank 8th in scoring and can generate more offense with their lineup deficiencies. The atmosphere in Pittsburgh is not good, as receivers are starting to show visible frustration and lack of effort when not getting the ball. This is unacceptable behavior for any team, especially one still in the playoff hunt. The Colts have less drama, a stronger offense, and an offensive coach, and they will win this matchup.
Take the Colts to cover.
Prediction: Colts -1.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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Rating:
Pittsburgh has been cashing unders at a high rate, and another under will hit here on Saturday. Pittsburgh has gone under in 10 of their 13 games, as they rely heavily on their defense to make plays and keep them in the game. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover differential, with 10 more takeaways than offensive turnovers. The problem is that they are not turning those takeaways into points. The Steelers are still only 27th in scoring despite gaining a strong field position when their defense forces a turnover. Both teams are on their backup quarterbacks and may rely more on the ground game to attempt to keep this game close. Both skill units are not at full strength either, as Jonathan Taylor will miss this game, and Diontae Johnson has been missing practices this week but is probable. The Steelers' receivers have been showing their frustration lately due to a lack of targets. If they are not happy early in this game, it will get ugly. This will be a low-scoring AFC battle on Saturday.
Take the under.
Prediction: Under 42.5
Paul has been a sports fan his entire life, and was an All-Conference basketball player at The University of Scranton. He is currently a high school basketball coach and a mathematics teacher with a Master’s in Business Administration. This unique combination gives Paul the ability to find mismatches from a coach’s perspective while having the ability to analyze statistical data to spot advantages. Paul will provide you with an array of statistics, trends, and analytics to prepare for any match-up. Follow Paul for up-to-date analysis and all your betting needs. We are thrilled to have Paul on our team.
