Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State Predictions, Odds & Picks: Points at a Premium on March Madness Opening Night

The Pittsburgh Panthers and Mississippi State Bulldogs play very different styles. Which will win out on Tuesday? Here are the best Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

The last game that each of these teams played left many wondering if they could beat anyone in the NCAA Tournament. The Panthers lost 96-69 to the Duke Blue Devils in a game that was never even remotely close. Additionally, the Panthers have lost three consecutive road games, including contests to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs looked like they didn’t want to be on the floor with the Alabama Crimson Tide. They fell 72-49 one day after narrowly escaping with a 69-68 overtime win over the Florida Gators. The Bulldogs have lost two of their last three games, and their last two true road contests.

Here is our best Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State odds

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This is a game of two clashing styles. Of 363 qualifying teams, the Bulldogs are 306th in the nation in points per game this season. They’re averaging just 65.9 points per contest, and during a stretch earlier this season where they lost eight out of nine, they scored more than 60 just four times. The reason they’re in this tournament is that their defense is eighth in the country, allowing just 61 points per game.

On the other side, the Panthers are scoring 76.1 points per game, which ranks 52nd in the country, but they are allowing 70.5 points per game. They have allowed 80 or more points in four of their last five. The Bulldogs have scored 80 or more just three times this season, and only once did they hit that number against a Power 5 opponent.

While picking between these two teams seems unlikely to produce a successful result, we do think that the Under is the right play. While the Panthers have been in some high-scoring games of late, the Bulldogs have been imposing their will all season long. The Panthers have enough playmakers to get into the mid-60s, and if they do, they will probably win this game.

One final note: With this being the first game of the tournament for both teams, expect a lot of nerves, which will keep this low-scoring until the very end.

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State best odds

DraftKings (-110)

There is very little difference between the five major sportsbooks. FanDuel is offering this line at 131.5, and while the price is cheaper than the other books, it’s not worth taking this already low total at an even lower number. 

You can feel comfortable taking this at any of the other major sportsbooks, but we suggest BetMGM if you're looking to parlay the Panthers’ moneyline or spread, as the odds are the best.

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State odds analysis

The Bulldogs opened as 1.5-point favorites, and despite initially moving to -2, the spread has returned back to where it started. Roughly 61% of wagers are backing the Panthers, and with how the Bulldogs play, it would not be surprising to see this line keep moving in favor of Pittsburgh.

The total opened at 131.5, and the number has gone up to 132.5 at most of the major sportsbooks. Roughly 62% of bettors are backing the Over in this one. This is not surprising, considering this is the first game of the NCAA Tournament most bettors will watch. With the public generally favoring the Over, don’t read too much into what they’re doing. Instead, read into how oddsmakers react.

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State game info

• Date: Tuesday, March 14, 9:10 PM
• TV: truTV
• Location: UD Arena, Dayton, OH

Pittsburgh-Mississippi State pick made 03/13/2023 at 9:07 a.m. ET.

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