Play of the Day: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Frances Tiafoe, Wimbledon

Tiafoe will be a popular bet to win but the Bulgarian is going to feel good about his chances.

Grigor Dimitrov has quietly been on a tear at Wimbledon, losing a total of 15 games over two rounds. Dimitrov didn’t play the best competition, with his wins coming against Sho Shimabukuro and Ilya Ivashka, but Dimitrov has always been a good grass-court player, so it’s hard to downplay what we’ve seen.

Frances Tiafoe is definitely going to put up more of a fight than Dimitrov’s previous opponents, but I do think the Bulgarian will win this match. Tiafoe’s game has always been one that theoretically would translate to grass, and the American has played well this week. But Tiafoe has won only 20 matches on this surface in his career, while Dimitrov has won 42. The Bulgarian just has a lot more experience than his opponent on these courts, and I think his movement is going to be a big advantage in this match.

One of the things that has become evident when watching Dimitrov this year is that he has lost confidence in what was once a gorgeous one-handed backhand. The Bulgarian has instead started to focus on slicing that shot more than ever, making his opponents go down and work hard to return. That strategy won't work on all surfaces, but I do think it will be effective against Tiafoe. A good backhand slice is a weapon on grass, and I think Dimitrov can get Tiafoe to make a lot of mistakes if he’s hitting that shot well.

I also just love the way Dimitrov is serving in London. He’s looking really confident with the ball on his racquet, and I think that will be huge against Tiafoe. Dimitrov is the better returner between the two, so you’d think that will play to his advantage at some point.

It’s also hard to ignore that this is very much a “fool’s gold” match. The public is going to see Tiafoe with great odds against Dimitrov and jump to back the American because he has been the more successful of these two in recent years. A majority of the tickets on this match are on Tiafoe already. But the line is actually moving the other direction, which suggests the sharp money is on Dimitrov. You generally want to side with the sharp money.