Plenty of betting value midway through the FedEx St. Jude Championship

PGA Tour
 
Plenty of betting value midway through the FedEx St. Jude Championship

The leaderboard is getting crowded after the second round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Twelve players are within three shots of the lead held by Lucas Glover at 10 under par.

No, you did not click on the wrong article. This is not the Wyndham Championship. After a second-round 64, Glover is trying to make an astronomical move up the FedExCup standings. He is halfway home towards winning the first Playoff event on the PGA TOUR this season. If Glover does go on to win, he is currently projected to move 109 spots in the span of just two weeks.

Jordan Spieth held the overnight lead at 7 under par. A second-round 68 has him in solo second place at 9 under. On Thursday night I had Spieth in my "fade" category, mainly because of his short odds at +650. I actually like him better if his number goes down a little bit. The longer he stays in the tournament, the better you should feel about betting him.

+600: Scottie Scheffler (-7)

+700: Jordan Spieth (-9), Rory McIlroy (-7)

+1100: Tommy Fleetwood (-8)

+1400: Sungjae Im (-8) +1600: Emiliano Grillo (-8)

+2000: Xander Schauffele (-6) +2500: Taylor Moore (-8)

It is HOT at TPC Southwind this week. The players have gotten a feel for how the course is playing as moving day looms. Here's what I'm eyeing at the halfway point:

This is either proof that Sungjae Im is extremely undervalued, or the oddsmakers know something about his game that I don't. I understand the logic of why a player in third place has the seventh-best odds. Im hasn't had a top 10 since the Wells Fargo Championship and has missed as many cuts as he's made since then, five.

The reason I think he is a good play is because usually when he is in contention after Friday, he stays in contention Sunday evening. We're talking about a player who has two wins in the last four seasons, is 17th in SG: Total this season, leads the field in driving accuracy this week and is second in SG: Tee-to-Green this week. He's also just two shots off the lead. The biggest reason I like Im at this point is because his third rounds have been stellar this season. In his last 10 made cuts, Im's worst third-round score is 68. I expect him to be in the mix on Sunday with a betting number much lower than +1400.

Adam Hadwin (-7, +6600 to win)

At +6600, why not? You wont see many odds that high for someone three shots off the lead with two rounds to go. I know recent missed cuts are glaring for him right now, but let's put it this way. In four of Hadwin's last five missed cuts he shot a round in the 60s. So he wasn't that far off. Let's also not forget he got into a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic against Rickie Fowler and Collin Morikawa. TPC Southwind is all about irons and putting, right? Hadwin is seventh this week in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: Putting. If you want a chance at a bigger payday with a smaller risk, this is the play.

Scottie Scheffler (-7, +600)

Since I did it for Jordan Spieth on Thursday, I'll do it for the top player in the world on Friday. Betting Scottie Scheffler at +600 when he is three shots off the lead is not a good bang for your buck. Now, I'm not going to dog a guy who has seven top-5s in his last eight starts; but I am going to go with the recent trend here. Hot starts have not helped Scheffler win lately. After rounds of 67-66 this week, he sits at a total of 133. In six of those seven top-5s I mentioned, he was sitting at 135 or better after two rounds and didn't win any of those tournaments. One of the reasons why he went winless was becomes of the stiff competition around him. There are too many world-class players around the top of the leaderboard to justify picking anyone at +600 while sitting three shots back.

Tommy Fleetwood (-8, +1100)

Given Fleetwood's weekend blunders when trying to win over the years, he is someone you have to stay away from. When he finally breaks through and wins, the sky's the limit - but that hasn't happened yet. In his 12 made cuts in 2023, Fleetwood has shot 70 or higher in his final round 10 times.

Sitting two shots back, Fleetwood also has the smallest odds of all five players at 8 under. He has the tools to win big tournaments, and maybe his odds reflect that. However, until he does win, I would keep your money in your pocket.