Time for Jordan Spieth to end his victory drought in Memphis
In our First Round Leader column on Wednesday, I noted the weather forecast calling for thunderstorms on just about every day of the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis. The forecast has proven to be accurate as this golf course, TPC Southwind, has indeed taken in a great deal of moisture and we do have a soft golf course on our hands with very receptive greens. And it has shown in the scoring.
Jordan Spieth was your First Round Leader after opening with a 7-under 63. The Over/Under proposition bet for the 72-hole winning score was 264.5 this week - or 15.5 under par. Lucas Glover leads through three rounds and is already at 14-under with another day of play remaining. Justin Rose went the lowest on Saturday, firing a 9-under 61.
Right on the heels of Glover is Taylor Moore at 13-under par. Tommy Fleetwood is two shots back at 12-under. Max Homa and Jordan Spieth are at 11-under and a six-pack of big names are lurking at 9-under par. Five shots off the lead, heading into the final round are Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Emiliano Grillo, Sungjae Im, and Tom Kim.
The weather for Sunday's final round is supposed to be hot and humid but there is no mention of any moisture. There is also very little wind expected, well less than 10 MPH, so I believe the golf course will remain soft and more low scores are likely.
+200: Lucas Glover
+400: Taylor Moore
+450; Tommy Fleetwood
+900: Jordan Spieth, Max Homa
+1800: Rory McIlroy
+2500: Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland
I feel like someone, maybe two players, are going to emerge from that group at 9 under and shoot a very low round on Sunday - like sub-64. A 62 would translate into being 17-under for the championship. Will that be enough to top Glover - or to get into a playoff? From a betting standpoint, I don't feel confident about backing anyone in the group at 9-under because even if a player or two does go low, it could easily be not low enough. Secondly, which player of the six-pack is it going to be that makes the move on Sunday?
I feel better about moving up the board a couple of shots and taking a look at Homa and Spieth who enter Sunday three shots back at 11-under par - and my final answer is going to be Spieth.
Way back in March is was right here in the Draws & Fades column that we hit Taylor Moore at the Valspar Championship, tipping him at the halfway point. What opened the door wide-open for Moore was Jordan Spieth splashing his tee ball into the pond off of No. 16 tee in the final round on Sunday. I'm going to turn the tables here and bank on Jordan getting some payback. Spieth entered the week 31st in the FedExCup standings, one spot out of the TOUR Championship Top 30. He has clearly put himself in position to get well inside that Top 30 and I feel like the momentum he's built up so far, will carry on through Sunday's round. It is interesting to note that Spieth, currently tied for fourth place, ranks 43rd in the field for the week in SG: Approach and is actually losing about a third of a shot to the field through three days.
This is the same guy who ranks 41st on TOUR in SG: Approach and is gaining over a third of a shot on the field this season. Obviously, he is doing everthing else very well to be at 11-under par. Spieth is eighth in the field for Driving Accuracy, 10th for SG: Off the Tee, sixth for SG: Around the Green, and 11th for SG; Putting. Let's also not forget that Spieth shot 63 on Thursday and led the championship after Day 1, so he has already shown us that he has that gear in the bag too. I believe that the iron play will take a turn for the better on Sunday and that Spieth has a good chance to make it bookend rounds of 63. That would put him at 18-under par for the championship and I believe that would at least get him into a playoff.
It is difficult to go against Moore here because he has been playing so steadily. He's posted two rounds of 66 and one 65, so the consistency is there. He ranks No. 1 in this field for Greens in Regulation through the first three rounds. He ranks third for SG: Approach and 12th in SG: Putting - and he is an excellent putter. What worries me though - is he playing slightly above his head? Moore has dropped to 89th on TOUR in SG: Approach and 126th in GIR Percentage. He's missed the cut in five of his last seven starts. I just don't believe he can maintain what he currently has going. He is a great putter and that will help him stay afloat but I could see Moore having a pedestrian round on Sunday - maybe even par or a 2-under 68 - while a handful of other players toward the top of the leaderboard are making a charge and passing him by. Moore also ranks 144th on TOUR in Final Round Scoring Average.
